Copyright © 2018 Authors. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted
use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
International Journal of Engineering & Technology, 7 (4.3) (2018) 588-592
International Journal of Engineering & Technology
Website: www.sciencepubco.com/index.php/IJET
Research paper
Managerial Decision Support Making in Economic Systems
Based on Cognitive Modeling
L. Filipkovska
1
*, O. Matviienko
1
1
National Aerospace University named after M.Y. Zhukovsky "Kharkiv Aviation Institute"
*Corresponding author E-mail: l.filipkovska@gmail.com
Abstract
The research is devoted to the search for the technologies to support managerial decisions in the transport industry economic systems.
The problems of the complex economic systems modelling have been identified. Cognitive modelling is considered as a tool of
supporting intelligent decision making in economic systems. The modelling is based on methods of pattern recognition theory. The
results of the scientific research are presented with structural-analytical models of decision support systems. Such models represent the
knowledge processing to formulate recommendations for making managerial decisions. Knowledge based on the experience of managing
a production situation should be stored in the knowledge base of the information decision making support system. Cognitive modeling
will make it possible to study the problems that arise in unstable, weakly structured dynamic economic systems, taking into account
changes of the external environment and the object of management itself, systematizing and verifying the expert's perception of the
management object and its external environment, forecasting the values of economic system factors and generating optimal management
strategies.
Keywords: cognitive modeling; decision trees; economic systems; managerial decision support; methods of pattern recognition theory.
1. Introduction
Management as a function of ensuring the life of the economic
system is aimed at making decisions. Managerial decisions are
formed for the implementation of a set of interrelated, purposeful
and logically consistent actions that will contribute to the
achievement of the purposes of such a system [1].
The tasks of management of the economic system are substantially
weakly structured and poorly formalized; they contain
contradictory purposes and criteria, and require a variety of ways
to solve problems with fuzzy knowledge, aims, and data. When
solving them, the following uncertainties arise:
subjects insufficient knowledge about management
problems;
impossibility of taking into account the environment
reaction;
incompleteness of data on the effectiveness of the
economic system elements.
The problem actuality of the complex economic systems
functioning in crisis situations has created the need to develop a
methodology for modelling complex systems that develop with
incomplete knowledge and weak formalization of tasks.
The main problem when creating a rational system of an economic
object management consists in the choice or development of a
mathematical model that provides adjustment to the specifics of
the management object through the use of a posteriori information
about its and the environment, as well as due to additional on-line
information during the system exploitation.
The purposes of the work are to study the issues of cognitive
analysis and the theoretical basis of cognitive technologies for
making managerial decisions in economic systems.
2. Literature Review
The economic system is a set of interrelated and properly adjusted
elements that form a certain integrity and determine the method of
organizing the economic life activity of society [2]. The concept
of the economic system is used to identify and characterize the
status of productive forces, the structure of the economy,
economic relations, forms of economic management, the totality
of institutions and elements of the superstructure [3, 4]. Under
conditions of uncertainty of the environment it is actual formation
of strategic guidelines for the development of economic systems
[5]. This tendency is characterized primarily by qualitative
changes [6].
Modern enterprise is considered as an economic system
characterized by a variety of structure, the difference nature of
elements and their complex relationships, the dynamism, which
consists in the continuous change of status of the specified system,
multicriteria and probabilistic nature of production processes.
Today, the problems of crisis management of the enterprise,
prevention of conflicts, bankruptcy, reduction of economic, social
and moral losses from them, formation of the strategy of
organizing changes and innovations, development of marketing
strategies for survival in the market are put on the foreground [7].
The economic status of the object of management as a complex
economic phenomenon depends on the set of indicators set by the
researcher, the variability of values of which is determined by a
set of conditions, from the methods of evaluation of this state and
from the chosen criterion of classification and classification scale
[2], [5].
The theoretical and methodological evaluation of the efficiency of
the functioning of the economic system is no less relevant [8–10].
One of the most important directions of improving the efficiency