Adaptation of the agricultural sector to the effects of climate change in arid regions: competitive advantage date palm cropping patterns under water scarcity conditions Ahmed M. Alabdulkader, Ahmed I. Al-Amoud and Fawzi S. Awad ABSTRACT This research paper highlights the adverse effects of climate change on the agricultural sector in Saudi Arabia and the actions taken to adapt to these adverse effects. Special focus was given to the potential to optimise the reallocation of scarce water resources among the competitive advantage date palm cropping regions in Saudi Arabia using a mathematical sector modelling approach. The results showed great potential for Saudi Arabia to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change by optimising the date palm cropping pattern in accordance with its scarce water resources and limited cultivated lands. The optimised scenario would result in a high net annual return, equivalent to about 881.76 million US$ year 1 , and an increase on the water use return from about 0.97 US$ cm 1 in the base year to approximately 1.31 US$ cm 1 . The optimised scenario would also provide the opportunity to reduce the allocated date palm cropping area by approximately 4% (from approximately 118,250 hectares to approximately 113,446 hectares) and to reduce the water demand by approximately 1% (from 681.06 million cubic metres (MCM) per year to approximately 674.28 MCM per year). Ahmed M. Alabdulkader (corresponding author) King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia E-mail: akader@kacst.edu.sa Ahmed I. Al-Amoud Fawzi S. Awad King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia Key words | mathematical sector modelling national adaptation programme, net annual return, water use return INTRODUCTION Climate change is currently the overriding environmental issue. Its effect varies greatly among countries and socioeconomic sectors. The agricultural sector is one of the sectors which is most highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, and this vulnerability becomes more evident in arid and semi-arid regions. The significant role of the agricultural sector is recognised worldwide as a key driver for achieving sus- tainable economic, social and environmental development. Accordingly, the international community, particularly in developing countries, has given special consideration to mitigat- ing the adverse effects of climate change on the agricultural sector and to adapting to these effects in a sustainable manner. The actions aimed at adaptation in the agricultural sector include the adjustment of date planting, crop varieties, crop relocation (IPCC ) and the more efficient use of water, for example through improved agricultural practices, irri- gation management and resilient agriculture (IPCC ). Developing a national adaptation programme for the agricultural sector in Saudi Arabia in response to the adverse effects of climate change has become essential as it is the sector responsible for ensuring national food secur- ity and is the greatest consumer of water resources in the country, accounting for an average of approximately 86% of the total water supply throughout the last three decades. Approximately 72% of the water consumed by the agricul- tural sector is pumped from non-renewable water resources. 514 © IWA Publishing 2016 Journal of Water and Climate Change | 07.3 | 2016 doi: 10.2166/wcc.2016.096 Downloaded from https://iwaponline.com/jwcc/article-pdf/7/3/514/373372/jwc0070514.pdf by guest on 23 May 2020