J. Quant. Econ.
DOI 10.1007/s40953-017-0077-4
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Macroeconomic Modelling and Bayesian Methods
Pami Dua
1
© The Indian Econometric Society 2017
Abstract This paper discusses the evolution of macroeconomic modelling. In partic-
ular, it focuses in particular on Bayesian methods and provides some applications of
the Bayesian vector autoregression methods to the Indian economy.
Keywords Macroeconomic modelling · Bayesian methods · Time series
Mathematics Subject Classification C11 · C2 · C3
1 Introduction
“Macro models are never static. They constantly evolve. ‘Survival of the fittest’
is a good description of the history of models...”- Hall et al. (2003)
Research on macroeconomic modelling, the world over, has been driven by con-
stantly evolving economic theory and advancements in econometric methodology in
a dynamic macroeconomic environment. The focus has been on striking a balance
between internal consistency, empirical adherence and adequacy for policy analysis.
In this paper, I describe the evolution of macroeconomic modelling and specifically
focus on Bayesian methods. Additionally, I present some applications of Bayesian
vector autoregression (BVAR) methods to the Indian economy.
The paper is organized as follows. “Evolution of Macroeconomic Models”, I first
briefly outline the evolution of macroeconomic models. Thereafter, “Bayesian Meth-
ods” discusses the tenets of Bayesian methodology. “Applications of Bayesian VAR
B Pami Dua
dua@econdse.org
1
Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, Delhi 110007, India
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