Vol.:(0123456789)
Natural Hazards
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3560-0
1 3
ORIGINAL PAPER
Cryospheric hazards and risk perceptions in the Sagarmatha
(Mt. Everest) National Park and Bufer Zone, Nepal
Sonam Futi Sherpa
1
· Milan Shrestha
1
· Hallie Eakin
1
· Christopher G. Boone
1
Received: 13 May 2018 / Accepted: 18 December 2018
© Springer Nature B.V. 2019
Abstract
Glacial lake outburst foods (GLOFs) are among the most serious cryospheric hazards for
mountain communities. Multiple studies have predicted the potential risks posed by rapidly
expanding glacial lakes in the Sagarmatha (Mt. Everest) National Park and Bufer Zone
of Nepal. People’s perceptions of such cryospheric hazards can infuence their actions,
beliefs, and responses to those hazards and associated risks. This study provides a system-
atic approach that combines household survey data with ethnography to analyze people’s
perceptions of GLOF risks and the socioeconomic and cultural factors infuencing their
perceptions. A statistical logit model of household data showed a signifcant positive corre-
lation between the perceptions of GLOF risks and livelihood sources, mainly tourism. Risk
perceptions are also infuenced by spatial proximity to glacial lakes and whether a village
is in potential food zones. The 2016 emergency remediation work implemented in the Imja
Tsho (glacial lake) has served as a cognitive fx, especially in the low-lying settlements.
Much of uncertainty and confusions related GLOF risks among locals can be attributed to
a disconnect between how scientifc information is communicated to the local communities
and how government climate change policies have been limited to awareness campaigns
and emergency remediation eforts. A sustainable partnership of scientists, policymakers,
and local communities is urgently needed to build a science-driven, community-based ini-
tiative that focuses not just in addressing a single GLOF threat but develops on a compre-
hensive cryospheric risk management plan and considers opportunities and challenges of
tourism in the local climate adaptation policies.
Keywords Cryospheric hazards · GLOFs · Risk perception · Adaptation · Mt. Everest
region · Nepal
1 Introduction
Glacial lake outburst foods (GLOFs) are among the most serious cryospheric hazards
for mountain communities around the world (Huggel et al. 2002; Carey 2005, 2010; Ives
et al. 2010). They pose a signifcant threat to human lives and infrastructures, as they can
* Milan Shrestha
milan.shrestha@asu.edu
1
School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281, USA