Land Use Policy 62 (2017) 232–245 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Land Use Policy jo ur nal ho me pag e: www.elsevier.com/locate/landusepol Livestock intensification as a climate policy: Lessons from the Brazilian case Jonathan Gonc ¸ alves da Silva a,∗ , Clandio Favarini Ruviaro a , Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho b a Agribusiness Postgraduate Program, Federal University of Grande Dourados (UFGD), CEP 79804-970, Dourados, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil b Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, University of Sao Paulo (Esalq/USP), CEP 13418-900, Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brazil a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 8 August 2016 Received in revised form 12 November 2016 Accepted 19 December 2016 Keywords: Livestock Productivity Land-use changes Greenhouse gas emissions CGE model a b s t r a c t Brazil is trying to identify ways to ally economic growth with climate change mitigation. Productiv- ity gains in livestock have been pointed out as a promising alternative to achieve that goal. Thus, this paper analyses the economic impacts of a policy of productivity gains in the Brazilian livestock. Besides, we evaluate if the policy may conciliate agricultural growth and deforestation control, bearing in mind the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land-use changes. The analysis was carried out through a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, tailored to represent land-use changes, GHG emissions and removals. Besides, it made progress modeling the heterogeneity of climate, soils, and emis- sions in inter-regional models with many regions. The results show that productivity gains can effectively “save” land and thus avoid deforestation, especially in the Amazon and Cerrado (savannah) biomes. The policy also may boost the economic growth, spreading it to other regions of Brazil, like Centre-West and North, and increasing income and consumption in those places. However, as a climate policy, focused on the reduction of GHG emissions, the results may be counterproductive. The net amount issued may increase, as a result of the positive stimulus of the policy on the economy, and GHG emissions are directly related to the economic growth. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Brazil has emerged as a major agricultural producer in the international scenario. Such recognition stems from its agricultural dynamism, which has been a key strength of its economy. From 1995–2015, for example, the average share of agriculture in GDP was 21.7 percent, which when disaggregated shows that agricul- ture alone accounted for 15.3 percent, while livestock accounted for 6.4 percent, over the same period (Cepea, 2014). The positive performance of the agricultural sector has been making Brazil to register trade surpluses, which has been essential to the country once its industrial sector has been losing compet- itiveness and therefore, share in the exports. Over the past 20 years, agribusiness accounted, on average, for 40.4 percent of all its exports. This result is in sharp contrast with the weak performance ∗ Corresponding author at: Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados - UFGD Fac- uldade de Administrac ¸ ão, Ciências Contábeis e Economia - FACE Rodovia Dourados - Itahum, Km 12 - Cidade Universitaria Dourados - MS - Brazil. E-mail address: jonathandasilva@ufgd.edu.br (J.G.d. Silva). of other export sectors, particularly industrial sectors. In 2015, for example, the Brazilian trade balance amounted to US$ 112.86 bil- lion, while the balance of agribusiness totaled US$ 88.2 billion, showing the importance of this sector to the country’s economy (Brasil, 2014). Agricultural expansion is, therefore, a key element for expand- ing the national economy, especially on a stable basis. Over decades, such expansion has been based on land incorporation. Between the Brazilian Agricultural Censuses of 1995/96 and 2006, for example, the total area occupied by crops grew by 20 percent, from 50.1 mil- lion hectares (Mha) to 59.8 Mha, while planted pasture areas grew by 1.81% from 99.6 Mha to 101.4 Mha over the same period (IBGE, 2014a). In a regional context, crop areas grew mainly in the mid-west (+63.9%), north (+37.3%), and northeast (+29%) regions of Brazil. Livestock, in turn, grew only in the north (+39.3%) and northeast (+26.9%) regions. These regions also stood out by the deforestation of native vegetation in the agricultural establishments. In 2006, forests and grasslands areas decreased 23.6%, 8.1%, and 9.6% in farms of the regions north, northeast and mid-west, respectively. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.12.025 0264-8377/© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.