Conference on THE SEQUENCING OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION: Issues in the Breadth and Depth of Economic Integration in the Americas Mendoza College of Business, Notre Dame September 2005 SEQUENCING AND PATH DEPENDENCE IN EUROPEAN INTEGRATION Andrew Moravcsik Princeton University (amoravcs@princeton.edu ) This paper surveys and evaluates some recent trends in the historiographical and political science literatures on sequencing and path dependence in the process of European integration. It draws four main conclusions: (1) A theoretical synthesis of endogenous policy theory, non-coercive interstate bargaining theory, and international regime theory provides a plausible account of European integration. (2) There is substantial historical evidence in favor of this synthetic explanation, as opposed to explanations stressing geopolitical or ideological factors, international mediation and political entrepreneurship. (3) These theories suggest a modest role for sequencing, particular as regards the impact of the order in which successive countries enter the EU. (3) Efforts have long been made to advance theories, generally referred to as “historical institutionalist” or “ neo-functionalist” that treat sequencing as a more important variable—notably those that argue that integration is fundamentally “path dependent”—but little historical evidence supports such claims. (5) Currently the process of European integration appears to have reached an institutional plateau. There is now in place a “European Constitutional Compromise,” about which theories in which sequencing plays a critical role give us little purchase. I. WHAT DRIVES INTEGRATION? A NEW SYNTHESIS Over the past decade, a widely-accepted synthetic explanation has emerged in the historiographical and political science literatures seeking to explain the process of European integration. This theoretical synthesis focuses on the major treaty-amending steps taken forward in the process of European integration: the negotiation of the Treaty of Rome signed in 1957, the consolidation of the customs union and Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) during the 1960s, the establishment of the European Monetary System (EMS) in 1978-79, the negotiation of the Single European Act (SEA) in 1985-86, and the Maastricht Treaty on European Union signed in 1991. The synthesis draws on endogenous policy theory, interstate bargaining theory, and international regime theory—three bodies of general theory (of political economy, bargaining and delegation, respectively) now standard in political science. In this view, the primary impetus for integration has been a series of exogenous functional challenges. These include intra-industry trade in the 1950s and 1960s, monetary fluctuations and capital mobility in the 1970s and 1980s, greater foreign direct investment and regulatory conflict in the 1980s, and the collapse of Communism in the 1990s.