© 2020
1. Introducton
Water resources of the planet Earth take part in the infnitely
recurrent hydrological cycle, the largest movement of mater
in the Earth’s system. Since water is the basic element of the
life support system of the planet, it is of utmost importance
to understand the impacts of the ongoing and projected
climate change on water resources and water availability.
Under balance of evidence, global warming is unequivocal
and most of it is very likely due to the increase in atmospheric
greenhouse gas concentratons. Observed climate change has
extended beyond temperature. The likelihood of deleterious
impacts, as well as the cost and difculty of adaptaton,
would increase with the extent and the speed of global
climate change. One of the efects of climate change is that
hydrological extremes become more extreme. This leads
to emergence of hot-spots and vulnerable areas, and the
need for difcult adaptaton. Globally, the negatve impacts
of climate change on freshwater systems are very likely to
outweigh their benefts (Kundzewicz, 2008). Therefore, the
study was planned with the objectves to prepare the various
thematc maps, assess the diferent hydrological balance using
SWAT modelling, analyze the probability of water balance
Climate Change Impact on Hydrologic System in Aji River Basin
Prasang H. Rank
*
, P. B. Vekariya and H. D. Rank
College of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, Junagadh Agricultural University, Junagadh, Gujarat (362 001), India
Article History
RECEIVED on 14
th
April 2020 RECEIVED in revised form 01
st
June 2020 ACCEPTED in fnal form 03
rd
June 2020
The CCAM (GFDL) RCM simulated daily maximum/minimum temperature and
rainfall datafor the base line period (1970-2005) and future scenario (2006-2070)
for the IPCC SRES rcp 4.5 for 4 grid points (50kmx50km) falling in Aji basin were
bias corrected using Probability Distributon Mapping adoptng Gaussian and
Gamma distributon respectvely. The warming trend of annual average of daily
minimum and maximum temperature from 1970-2005 to 2006-2070 was found
increased from 0.027
o
C year
-1
to 0.04
o
C year
-1
and 0.027
o
C year
-1
to 0.025
o
C year
-
1
respectvely. The rainfall, runof and groundwater recharge in the basin were
found in statstcally stable trend in Aji basin. The best probability distributon was
used for estmatng each water balance component. The crop water requirements
during winter, summer and monsoon season may increase/decrease by the
tune of 6.4%, - 0.3% and 1.5% during winter, summer and monsoon season
respectvely in the future as compared to the past, due to climate change impacts.
The monsoon seasonal rainfall will be decreased in the future due to climate
change impacts. However, the extreme rainfall (100 year return period) event
will be increased in the future by the tune of 39%. Similarly, the runof will be
decreased in the future but the extreme event (100 year return period) of runof
will be increased by the tune of 87.5%. The extremity (100 year return period)
in the crop evapotranspiraton and ground water recharge may be decreased by
-5.7% and -5.8% respectvely.
Abstract
Prasang H. Rank
e-mail: prasangpatel83@gmail.com
Aji basin, climate change, groundwater, hydrologic
system, water resources
Rank et al., 2020. Climate Change Impact on
Hydrologic System in Aji River Basin. Research
Biotica 2(2), 30-39.
Corresponding Author
Keywords
How to cite this article?
Open Access
Artcle Id: RB0016
components and assess the climate change impacts on water
resources of the basin.
2. Materials and Methods
The CCAM (GFDL) RCM simulated daily maximum/minimum
temperature and rainfall data(50kmx50km) for the base line
period (1970-2005) and future scenario (2006-2070) for the
IPCC SRES rcp 4.5 for 4 grid point falling in Aji basin were taken
from the IITM, Pune. Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model
(CCAM) RCM is a recent earth-system model developed by
a Consortum of Common Wealth Scientfc and Industrial
Research Organizaton (CSIRO), (McGregor and Dex, 2001)
run under the experiment named as CCAM (GFDL), based on
state-of-the-art models for the atmosphere, the ocean, sea
ice and the biosphere. In partcular, the model is based on
the concept of “seamless predictons”: numerical weather
predicton (NWP) models are sophistcated state-of-the art
models which, being based on the same physical principles,
may provide advanced atmospheric components for climate
models. The CCAM RCM data were driven by the GFDL-CM3
GCM. The software namely (a) Remote sensing and GIS
sofware –Arc GIS V10.1, (b) Remote sensing and GIS sofware
Research Biotica 2020, 2(2):30-39
30
Research Article
Journal Home: www.biospub.com/index.php/resbio
DOI: 10.54083/ResBio.2.2.2020.30-39