Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Journal of Probability and Statistics
Volume 2013, Article ID 146140, 16 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/146140
Research Article
Bayesian Estimation and Prediction for Flexible Weibull Model
under Type-II Censoring Scheme
Sanjay Kumar Singh, Umesh Singh, and Vikas Kumar Sharma
Department of Statistics and DST-CIMS, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi 221005, India
Correspondence should be addressed to Vikas Kumar Sharma; vikasstats@redifmail.com
Received 4 April 2013; Revised 3 June 2013; Accepted 18 June 2013
Academic Editor: Shein-chung Chow
Copyright © 2013 Sanjay Kumar Singh et al. Tis is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution
License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly
cited.
We have developed the Bayesian estimation procedure for fexible Weibull distribution under Type-II censoring scheme assuming
Jefrey’s scale invariant (noninformative) and Gamma (informative) priors for the model parameters. Te interval estimation
for the model parameters has been performed through normal approximation, bootstrap, and highest posterior density (HPD)
procedures. Further, we have also derived the predictive posteriors and the corresponding predictive survival functions for the
future observations based on Type-II censored data from the fexible Weibull distribution. Since the predictive posteriors are not
in the closed form, we proposed to use the Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) methods to approximate the posteriors of interest.
Te performance of the Bayes estimators has also been compared with the classical estimators of the model parameters through the
Monte Carlo simulation study. A real data set representing the time between failures of secondary reactor pumps has been analysed
for illustration purpose.
1. Introduction
In reliability/survival analysis, generally, life test experiments
are performed to check the life expectancy of the manufac-
tured product or items/units before products produced in
the market. But in practice, the experimenters are not able
to observe the failure times of all the units placed on a life
test due to time and cost constraints or due to some other
uncertain reasons. Data obtained from such experiments are
called censored sample. Keeping time and cost constraints in
mind, many types of censoring schemes have been discussed
in the statistical literature named as Type-I censoring, Type-
II censoring and progressive censoring schemes, and so
forth. In this paper, Type-II censoring scheme is considered.
In Type-II censoring scheme, the life test is terminated
as soon as a prespecifed number (say, ) of units have
failed. Terefore, out of units put on test, only frst
failures will be observed. Te data obtained from such a
restrained life test will be referred to as a Type-II censored
sample.
Prediction of the lifetimes of future items based on
censored data is very interesting and valuable topic for
researchers, engineers and reliability practitioners. In predic-
tive inference, In predictive Inference, we can infer about
the lifetimes of the future items using observed data. Te
future prediction problem can be classifed into two types: (1)
one-sample prediction problem. (2) two-sample prediction
problem. In one-sample prediction problem, the variable to
be predicted comes from the same sequence of variables
observed and dependent of the informative sample. In the
second type, the variable to be predicted comes from another
independent future sample. Reference [1] has developed the
Bayesian procedure to the prediction problems of future
observations and use the concept of Bayesian predictive
posterior distribution. Many authors have focussed on the
problem of Bayesian prediction of future observations based
on various types of censored data from diferent lifetime
models (see [2–9], and references cited therein).
Te fexible Weibull distribution is a new two-parameter
generalization of the Weibull model which has been proposed