Turkey’s long-term generation expansion planning with the inclusion of renewable-energy sources q Mustafa Ozcan a,⇑ , Semra Ozturk b , Mehmet Yildirim c a Electricity and Electronics Department, S ßis ßli Technical School, S ßis ßli, 34381 _ Istanbul, Turkey b Electrical Engineering Department, Kocaeli University, Umuttepe, 41380 Kocaeli, Turkey c Information Systems Engineering Department, Kocaeli University, Umuttepe, 41380 Kocaeli, Turkey article info Article history: Received 18 June 2013 Received in revised form 6 July 2014 Accepted 7 July 2014 Available online xxxx abstract According to the Turkey’s energy supply policy, the main target on electricity generation is to increase the share of renewable-energy usage to above 30% by the year 2023. However, the steps taken to achieve this goal are being realized away from a long-term generation planning. The aim of this study is to examine the situation of renewable-energy sources, considering the Turkey’s generation planning and determine its contribution to overall generation together with its electrical and economic consequences. In the study, optimiza- tion of generation expansion planning (GEP), which covers the 2012–2027 planning horizon, was performed by using genetic algorithm (GA). The share of renewable sources to be installed for all source types was determined as 8.08%. Furthermore, the effects of reserve capacity level and rate of constraints on sources were investigated. The share of these sources can be increased by encouragements like tax deductions, mandatory quota application or carbon emission trade. Ó 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Using renewable-energy sources as candidate source types in generation expansion planning (GEP) of electrical energy will be able to ensure important contributions in removal of supply deficiency resulted from the consumption of fossil fuels, decreasing of foreign-source dependency on energy and reducing the effects of global climate change. The effects of the increase in carbon emissions on climate change must be paid attention in the phase of ensuring supply security. If no change is made in today’s energy policies, an increase will happen in the mean temperature throughout the world [1]. This situation will cause irrecoverable effects depending on the climate change. For preventing this, carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced. Renewable-energy, besides to its environmental and social benefits, has economic and technical disadvantages when compared to other source types. Some countries apply some policies like renewable portfolio standard (quota obligation), incentives (such as carbon taxes) and emission trading to overcome these disadvantages [2,3]. One of the targets referred in the White Paper [4] prepared by the European Union (EU) in 1997 related to renewable- energy sources is to make the rate of electrical energy obtained from renewable-energy sources 20% as the year of 2020. The aimed values were reached before 2010, and these targets were exceeded in some sources [5]. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.compeleceng.2014.07.001 0045-7906/Ó 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. q Reviews processed and approved for publication by Editor-in-Chief Dr. Manu Malek. ⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +90 535 414 45 27; fax: +90 212 222 65 45. E-mail address: ozcanm2000@gmail.com (M. Ozcan). Computers and Electrical Engineering xxx (2014) xxx–xxx Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Computers and Electrical Engineering journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/compeleceng Please cite this article in press as: Ozcan M et al. Turkey’s long-term generation expansion planning with the inclusion of renewable- energy sources. Comput Electr Eng (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.compeleceng.2014.07.001