The rate, extent and spatial predictors of forest loss (2000e2012) in the terrestrial protected areas of the Philippines Armando Apan a, b, * , Luz Angelica Suarez a, b , Tek Maraseni b , Jose Alan Castillo a, b a School of Civil Engineering and Surveying, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD, 4350, Australia b Institute for Agriculture and the Environment (IAgE), University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD, 4350, Australia article info Article history: Received 17 March 2016 Received in revised form 31 January 2017 Accepted 7 February 2017 Keywords: Forest loss Protected areas Philippines Logistic regression Deforestation abstract While studies on deforestation of protected areas (PAs) have been conducted in many parts of the world, no comparative study has been done over an entire country in the tropics. Thus, we conducted a country- wide assessment of forest cover loss in all terrestrial protected areas of the Philippines, covering 198 PAs with a total area of 4.68 million ha. This study utilised Hansen's Landsat-derived global maps of forest cover change from 2000 to 2012, with tree canopy cover data for 2000 as the base year. Correlation and logistic regression analyses were employed to determine the significance and magnitude of the re- lationships between forest cover and 11 predictor variables. The assessment of forest loss reveals that the terrestrial protected areas are generally effective in reducing forest loss. Over the 12-year period, the average rate (2.59%) of forest clearing in protected areas is marginally lower by 0.1% than the entire country (2.69%). Within the same duration, the average forest loss rate within the 2-km buffer zones of selected protected areas is 1.4 times of those inside PAs. However, there was a significant number of PAs with phenomenal forest cover loss in terms of extent (48,583 ha over 12 years) and rate (up to 21%). We found that spatial predictor variables included in this study have weak or no relationships with forest cover, and hence they are not reliable inputs for predictive modelling. Comprehensive assessments of deforestation are needed at the micro-scale (e.g. single PA level) level and relatively shorter historical timeframe (e.g. less than a decade), to generate useful information for policy formulation, planning, and management. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Over the past half century, the world's tropical forest areas have declined considerably. In the late 1970s, tropical deforestation was about 11.3 million hectares per year (M ha y 1 )(Lanly, 1982). During the period 1980e1990, it increased to about 15.4 M ha y 1 (Singh, 1993). From the latest Global Forest Resources Assessment 2015 report (FAO, 2015), tropical forest areas have declined by 195 M ha between 1990 and 2015 (Keenan et al., 2015). At present, the same report estimates that there are 1797 M ha of tropical forests worldwide, comprising around 44% of global forest area. While the quests to understand its drivers and preventive measures persist, the continuous depletion of forest resources is no doubt causing various environmental and socio-economic problems. As in many economically developing countries in Southeast Asia, deforestation in the Philippines has been rampant and rapid. The country's forest cover has declined from 17.1 million hectares or about 57% of the land area in 1937 (Tamesis, 1937) to approxi- mately 8.0 million hectares or 27% in 2015 (FAO, 2015). A study by Carandang et al. (2013) found that logging (identified by 40.58% of informants interviewed), kaingin making (shifting agriculture) (16.98%), biophysical factors (climate change, typhoons, floods, landslides) (12.73%), mining (8.49%), and charcoal making (8.15%) are the key drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in the country. Kummer (1991) stressed the importance of elite control and corruption in explaining the rate and pattern of deforestation in the post-war Philippines. The establishment and management of protected areas (PAs) is one of the strategies being used to combat deforestation. Protected areas serve a variety of functions and they provide substantial benefits to society. They are important in protecting landscapes and seascapes, achieving biodiversity conservation, and delivering essential ecosystem services (Watson, Dudley, Segan, & Hockings, * Corresponding author. School of Civil Engineering and Surveying, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD, 4350, Australia. E-mail address: apana@usq.edu.au (A. Apan). Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Applied Geography journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apgeog http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2017.02.007 0143-6228/© 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Applied Geography 81 (2017) 32e42