International Journal of Advanced Research, Ideas and Innovations in Technology © 2021, www.IJARIIT.com All Rights Reserved Page| 135 ISSN: 2454-132X Impact Factor: 6.078 (Volume 7, Issue 5 - V7I5-1200) Available online at: https://www.ijariit.com A study of Machine Learning algorithms to predict liver cirrhosis and its stage Prakash Aryan 2019btechaiprakash7275@poornima.edu.in Poornima University, Vidhani, Rajasthan Abstract: In early stages, cirrhosis usually doesn’t cause symptoms. Only through routine blood tests or liver biopsy does a doctor diagnose damage to the liver. Using Machine learning we develop a model that can assist doctors in diagnosing the early stages of liver cirrhosis before it gets fatal. In this study we use various machine learning algorithms to determine the liver cirrhosis stage. Data is collected from the Mayo Clinic trial, USA, in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) of the liver conducted between 1974 and 1984. Performance of the algorithms were evaluated using ROC-AUC curve which is a very practical method of model evaluation for classification problems. Results showed that by applying Logistic Regression to predict the cirrhosis stage we get a ROC-AUC score of 0.74 which is considerable in view of the instance we have. Keywords: Supervised Machine Learning, Disease Prediction, Python 1. INTRODUCTION Liver is the second largest organ in our body after our skin. It helps the body in removing toxins that are present in the blood supply, breaking down drugs, making the digestive fluid "Bile'' (helps in digestion and removing wastes from the body), storage and release of glucose as required and various other processes and it is thus called as the "body's chemical processing plant" [1]. Fibrosis of the liver is the early stage when a healthy tissue is replaced with non-living scarred tissue (Figure I) and obstructs the functioning of the liver. Cirrhosis is the late or end stage of liver fibrosis that causes permanent and serious scarring of the liver. Liver cirrhosis makes the functioning of the liver very difficult. End-stage liver disease (ESLD) leads to a liver in which the functioning of the liver has drastically deteriorated such that it causes disruptions in flow of blood to the liver which leads to pressure build up in the portal vein. It is a very severe case of cirrhosis. According to The Lancet (Gastroenterology & Hepatology) the age - standardized death rate globally, due to liver cirrhosis in 2017 was 16.5 per 100,000 population. In the sub-Saharan Africa super-region it was 32.2 per 100,000 population as compared to 10.1 per 100,000 population in the high-income super-region [2]. According to The Global Health Observatory of the World Health Organization, for countries such as Cambodia, Egypt, Nigeria and Sao Tome and Principe the age-standardized death due to liver cirrhosis is over 100 per 100,000 male population for the year 2016 [3]. In the initial stages around 40 percent of those affected with liver cirrhosis are asymptomatic [5]. The Most prevailing causes of liver cirrhosis are alcohol abuse, Hepatitis A, Hepatitis B and Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) [6]. Global Alcohol- attributable fraction(AAF) for liver cirrhosis deaths(%) is 44 percent [7].Patients with liver cirrhosis have a number of complications for examples, ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, hepatic encephalopathy, portal hypertension, variceal bleeding, and hepatorenal syndrome [8]. Various important parameters such as drug, age, ascites, hepatomegaly, spiders, edema, bilirubin, cholesterol, albumin, copper, alkaline phosphatase, SGOT, triglycerides, platelets and prothrombin are collected for each individual patient. Figure I. Left: Healthy liver Right: Liver cirrhosis[4] Artificial Intelligence in healthcare has helped in the reduction of the burden on doctors and their patients. An artificial intelligent system is a system that can perform tasks that would otherwise require human intelligence. In this study machine