ADVANCED REVIEW
Implications of climate change for shipping: Opening the
Arctic seas
Adolf K.Y. Ng
1,2
| Jonathan Andrews
1,3
| David Babb
3
| Yufeng Lin
1
| Austin Becker
1,4
1
Transport Institute, Asper School of Business,
University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba,
Canada
2
Department of Supply Chain Management, Asper
School of Business, University of Manitoba,
Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
3
Centre for Earth Observation Science, University
of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
4
Department of Marine Affairs, University of
Rhode Island, Kingston, Rhode Island
Correspondence
Adolf K.Y. Ng, Transport Institute, University of
Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada R3T 2N2.
Email: adolf.ng@umanitoba.ca
Funding information
Dr. D. Barber's Canada Research Chair (Tier 1);
Transport Canada's Network of Expertise on
Transportation in Arctic Waters (NEXTAW);
Transport Institute of the University of Manitoba
(UMTI); Genome Canada; CN Professorship in
Supply Chain Management
Edited by Timothy R. Carter, Domain Editor,
and Mike Hulme, Editor-in-Chief
This paper assesses the value and environmental feasibility of Arctic shipping by
reviewing the relevant scientific and economic peer-reviewed literature. From the
physical perspective, this paper examines the impact of climate change on sea ice
and marine weather and considers the resultant consequences for Arctic shipping
accessibility. From an economic perspective, it reviews the major research investi-
gating the economic feasibility of diverting ships from conventional shipping
routes to Arctic routes, the attitudes of shipping stakeholders, and other major fac-
tors affecting the prospect of Arctic shipping. This review also identifies important
research gaps. Ultimately, we find that the complex environmental and economic
dynamics of the Arctic suggest that an appropriate understanding of Arctic ship-
ping will require close collaboration between natural and social scientists.
This article is categorized under:
Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate
Change
KEYWORDS
Arctic, climate change, feasibility, shipping
1 | ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND A POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY
Climate change presents many impacts for human activities, including shipping. With more than 80% of globally traded
cargo carried by ships (Ng & Liu, 2014), shipping and the maritime industry play an important role in the well-being of
global and regional economies. A considerable volume of research investigates the negative impacts posed by climate change
on transportation infrastructures. For example, the book by Ng et al. (2016) contains numerous cases on how climate change
affects the operation of ports located in four continents, and how port stakeholders attempt to adapt to such challenges.
Climate change impacts will likely have both positive and negative elements. In fact, some societies may benefit from
the development and implementation of effective adaptation strategies and solutions (Ng et al., 2016). The United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change supports this view and defines adaptation to climate change as follows:
…Adjustments in ecological, social, or economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and
their effects or impacts...Changes in processes, practices, and structures to moderate potential damages or to
benefit from opportunities associated with climate change. (UNFCCC, 2014)
This is a companion paper to Becker A, Ng AKY, McEvoy D, Mullett J. Implications of climate change for shipping: Ports and supply chains. WIREs Clim
Change. 2018;e508. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.508
Received: 30 December 2016 Revised: 9 November 2017 Accepted: 10 November 2017
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.507
WIREs Clim Change. 2018;e507. wires.wiley.com/climatechange © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. 1 of 18
https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.507