Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research Vol. 8, No. 2, 2018, 2704-2708 2704 www.etasr.com Laghari et al.: Water Availability in Snow Dominated Regions under Projected Climatic Variability Water Availability in Snow Dominated Regions under Projected Climatic Variability A Case Study of Alpine Catchment, Austria Abdul Nasir Laghari Department of Chemical Engineering Quaid-e-Awam University of Engineering, Science & Technology Nawabshah, Pakistan mashaalnasirlaghari@gmail.com Mohsin Ali Soomro Department of Civil Engineering Quaid-e-Awam University of Engineering, Science & Technology Nawabshah, Pakistan Zafar Ali Siyal Department of Energy and Environment Quaid-e-Awam University of Engineering, Science & Technology Nawabshah, Pakistan Sajad H. Sandilo Department of Mathematics Quaid-e-Awam University of Engineering, Science & Technology Nawabshah, Pakistan Tania Ali Soomro Department of Architecture and Planning Dawood University of Engineering & Technology Karachi, Pakistan Abstract—This study analyzes the response of various hydrological parameters and future water availability against anticipated climate variations in snow dominated alpine catchment in Austria. The parameters assessed are base flow, environmental flow, total flow, evapotranspiration, and snow cover duration. The distributed hydrological modeling system PREVAH is developed to assess the impacts through the combination of various climate change scenarios produced under the framework of the European project PRUDENCE. The model results clearly indicate an apparent shift from observed trends in monthly, seasonal and annual values. The mean annual changes observed by all model scenarios range between 45% to 60% decrease in snow cover duration, 15% to 20% increase in evapotranspiration, 5% to 15% decrease in base flow, and 15% to 25% decrease in total runoff values. However, mean annual changes observed in available water are marginal, just ranging from -3% to +2%. All regional model projections show more or less the same identical pattern of changes in analyzed parameters. Keywords-climate change; Alpine catchment; hydrological response; water availability I. INTRODUCTION The mid-20th century, considered as an era of industrialization, has led to unprecedented use of fossil fuels which are a major cause for releases of anthropogenic greenhouse gases [1]. The clear-cut outcome is ever increasing temperature. The increasing temperature trend is a main catalyst behind change in climatic parameters. These changes have exhibited far-reaching effects on man and its eco-system. In [1], authors concluded that warming of the earth’s atmosphere is unambiguous and since the mid of the 19th century, the last three decades are the warmest ones at the earth’s surface than any preceding ones. The 30 year period from 1983-2012 is probably the hottest one in the last 14 centuries. They also reported a 0.85°C global temperature rise since 1880s [1]. However, the change in mountain regions is almost three times higher than the 20th century global average. Similar trend is observed in European Alps, a major supply source of 4 Alpine rivers: Danube, Rhine, Rhone and Po. Therefore, the region is considered highly prone to climatic variations [2]. These variations may affect region’s hydrological cycle. Several researchers already concluded that climatic variability alters the snow storage which subsequently affects timing and flow volumes in alpine catchments. Anticipated seasonality change may also bring severe complications for adjacent lowland areas [3-7]. Furthermore, it may affect constant water availability, hydropower generation, water tourism etc. Numerous other studies are also not only raising concerns over reliability of water supply sources but also acknowledge severe complications for water management systems [4, 8]. In such context, the present study analyzes catchment flow component’s sensitivity towards future climate change scenarios and subsequent impact on water availability. The hydrological modeling system PREVAH is developed to analyze mean flow, low flow (Q95) and base flow changes. Most of the studies generally investigate the climate variation effect on average flow conditions. However, there is a possibility that variation may not affect average flow conditions but may affect low flow conditions. Hence, may affect reliability of water supply sources. Similarly the temporal and spatial patterns (in raster format) of base flow analysis would indicate total water available for infiltration to, or abstraction from the ground water system. The findings will benefit the protection of ground water resources, land use