Predicting the distribution of a threatened albatross: The importance of competition, fisheries and annual variability P. Catry a,b,⇑ , R.T. Lemos c,d , P. Brickle e,1 , R.A. Phillips f , R. Matias a,g , J.P. Granadeiro h a Eco-Ethology Research Unit, ISPA, Rua Jardim do Tabaco 34, 1149-041 Lisboa, Portugal b Museu Nacional de História Natural e da Ciência, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal c NOAA/NMFS Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, 1352 Lighthouse Avenue, Pacific Grove, CA 93950-2097, USA d Centre for Applications in Natural Resource Mathematics (CARM), School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, Brisbane St. Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia e Falkland Islands Government, Directorate of Natural Resources, Fisheries Department, PO Box 598, Stanley FIQQ1ZZ, Falkland Islands f British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK g Centre for Ecology and Conservation, School of Biosciences, University of Exeter, Cornwall Campus, Penryn TR10 9EZ, UK h CESAM, Museu Nacional de História Natural e da Ciência, Universidade de Lisboa, 1250-102 Lisbon, Portugal article info Article history: Received 13 February 2012 Received in revised form 10 December 2012 Accepted 14 January 2013 Available online 1 February 2013 abstract The ability to predict the distribution of threatened marine predators is essential to inform spatially explicit seascape management. We tracked 99 individual black-browed albatrosses Thalassarche melan- ophris from two Falkland Islands’ colonies in 2 years. We modeled the observed distribution of foraging activity taking environmental variables, fisheries activity (derived from vessel monitoring system data), accessibility to feeding grounds and intra-specific competition into account. The resulting models had sufficient generality to make reasonable predictions for different years and colonies, which allows tem- poral and spatial variation to be incorporated into the decision making process by managers for regions and seasons where available information is incomplete. We also illustrated that long-ranging birds from colonies separated by as little as 75 km can show important spatial segregation at sea, invalidating direct or uncorrected extrapolation from one colony to neighboring ones. Fisheries had limited influence on albatross distribution, despite the well known scavenging behavior of these birds. The models developed here have potentially wide application to the identification of sensitive geographical areas where special management practices (such as fisheries closures) could be implemented, and would predict how these areas are likely to move with annual and seasonal changes in environmental conditions. Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Past and predicted widespread changes in marine ecosystems demand intensive monitoring and improved management prac- tices based on sound scientific data. Although many attributes of marine communities are poorly known, valuable insights may be derived from studies on species thought to convey information on particular components, such as, for example, spatial and tempo- ral variations in the abundance of prey (Block et al., 2011). Seabirds are relatively easy to study and thus are increasingly being used for environmental assessment and monitoring (Boyd et al., 2006). Fur- thermore, many seabird species are globally threatened, hence their inclusion in frameworks for ecosystem-based management of fisheries, in marine zoning and in the design of marine protected areas (Hyrenbach et al., 2000). In this context, the ability to predict the distribution of threa- tened marine predators such as albatrosses, petrels and other sea- birds is essential to inform spatially explicit seascape management (Louzao et al., 2011). The identification of hotspots where preda- tors are concentrated has recently been placed high on the applied research agenda (White et al., 2002; Terauds et al., 2006; Falabella et al., 2009; Louzao et al., 2011). Understanding the factors respon- sible for, and making accurate predictions of seabird distributions is a progressing field but comprehensive models of the spatial dis- tribution of marine predators are still scarce (Tremblay et al., 2009; Wakefield et al., 2009a). During reproduction, seabirds are central-place foragers. Their at-sea distribution can be assessed through ship-based surveys or through remote tracking. Both methods have their own advanta- ges, with tracking often better at distinguishing birds in transit from birds foraging, birds from different colonies of origin, or age and sex classes, and hence allowing the establishment of links be- tween areas of high resource abundance where energy-transfer is taking place and population vital rates (reproductive output and 0079-6611/$ - see front matter Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2013.01.005 ⇑ Corresponding author at: Eco-Ethology Research Unit, ISPA, Rua Jardim do Tabaco 34, 1149-041 Lisboa, Portugal. Tel.: +351 962445005. E-mail addresses: paulo.catry@gmail.com (P. Catry), rtlemos@gmail.com (R.T. Lemos), PBrickle@fisheries.gov.fk (P. Brickle), raphil@bas.ac.uk (R.A. Phillips), rfsmatias@gmail.com (R. Matias), jpgranadeiro@fc.ul.pt (J.P. Granadeiro). 1 Present address: South Atlantic Environmental Research Institute, PO Box 609, Stanley FIQQ 1ZZ, Falkland Islands. Progress in Oceanography 110 (2013) 1–10 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Progress in Oceanography journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/pocean