Landscape and Urban Planning 106 (2012) 303–315 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Landscape and Urban Planning jou rn al h om epa ge: www.elsevier.com/locate/landurbplan Resilience analysis of the interaction of between typhoons and land use change Szu-Hua Wang a,∗ , Shu-Li Huang a , William W. Budd b a The Graduate Institute of Urban Planning, National Taipei University, 151, University Rd., San Shia, New Taipei City, 237 Taiwan b Environmental Science and Regional Planning, Washington State University, PO Box 644870, Pullman, WA 99164, USA a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 16 June 2011 Received in revised form 30 March 2012 Accepted 3 April 2012 Available online 23 April 2012 Keywords: Resilience analysis Land cover change Typhoons Ecosystem services Peri-urban area a b s t r a c t Recent typhoons impacting Taiwan have produced heavy rains and flooding, causing tremendous property damage and human casualties. Interactions between typhoons, urban sprawl and economic development are rapidly changing social-ecological systems, increasing the sensitivity of peri-urban areas and their natural environments. These complex dynamic human–environment interactions can be studied using a resilience approach (Anderies, Walker, & Kinzig, 2006; Carpenter & Brock, 2004; GLP, 2005; Gunderson & Holling, 2002; Schouten, Heide, & Heijman, 2009; UGEC, 2005; Walker & Salt, 2006). This paper presents a resilience analysis approach to evaluate the probability that Taiwan’s social- ecological systems can resist changes associated with an increased frequency and intensity of typhoons. This resilience analysis is composed of three parts: system performance (SP), recovery duration (RD) and recovery efforts (RE). It examines changes in the resilience of social and ecological systems to typhoons and is applied to the Taipei-Taoyuan area using Geographic Information System (GIS) software. The results of the analysis show the changing patterns of system performance (SP), recovery duration (RD) and recovery efforts (RE) in response to changes in land cover and extreme weather, which degrade ecosystem services. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Social-ecological systems are prototypical examples of com- plex and adaptive systems that are characterized by historical dependency, nonlinear dynamics, threshold effects, multiple basins of attraction and limited predictability (Chapin, Kofinas, & Folke, 2009; Elmqvist et al., 2003; Fiksel, 2006; Folke et al., 2004; Holling, 1973; Hughes, Bellwood, Folke, Steneck, & Wilson, 2005; Levin, 1999; Newman, 2005; Thapa, Marshall, & Stagl, 2010; Walker et al., 2002). With respect to global climate change and land cover change, issues of uncertainty and long-term changes must be addressed (Barnett, 2001; Berkes, 2007; GLP, 2005; Perez, Fernandez, & Gatti, 2010; Peterson, Canning, Leschine, & Miles, 2007; Tarnoczi, 2009; Tschakert & Dietrich, 2010; UGEC, 2005). A resilience method, in contrast to conventional top-down, efficiency-focused and opti- mal state approaches, can be applied to complex adaptive systems, such as social-ecological systems with long-term sustainability (Anderies et al., 2006; Brand & Jax, 2007; Carpenter & Brock, 2004; Elmqvist et al., 2003; Fiksel, 2006; Folke et al., 2004; Gunderson & Holling, 2002; Hughes et al., 2005; Newman, 2005; Resilience Alliance, 2007; Schouten et al., 2009; Walker et al., 2002). ∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +886 2 8674 7347; fax: +886 2 8671 8801. E-mail addresses: szuhuawang@gmail.com (S.-H. Wang), shuli@mail.ntpu.edu.tw (S.-L. Huang), budd@wsu.edu (W.W. Budd). The first definition of resilience, a measure of the persistence of systems and of their ability to absorb change and disturbance while maintaining the same relationships between populations or state variables, was provided by the ecologist Holling (1973). Con- siderable research has lead to the development of both general and domain-specific definitions, such as one that involves the speed of return to the steady state following a perturbation (engi- neering resilience) (Folke, 2006; Gunderson, 2000; Holling, 1996; Peterson, Allen, & Holling, 1998; Pimm, 1991; Reggiani, 2002; Vugrin, Warren, Ehlen, & Camphouse, 2010; Walker & Salt, 2006; Zhang, 2010); the magnitude of disturbance that can be absorbed before the system is restructured, or the capacity of an ecosystem to tolerate disturbance without collapsing into a qualitatively differ- ent state (ecosystem resilience/ecological resilience) (Bengtsson, 2002; Colding, 2006; Folke, 2006; Gunderson, 2000; Holling, 1973; Peterson et al., 1998; Resilience Alliance, 2010; Schroll, Thorn, & Kjærgård, 2009; Walker et al., 2006; Zhang, 2010); the ability of groups or communities to cope with external stresses and distur- bances as a result of social, political, and environmental change (social resilience) (Abesamis, Corrigan, Drew, Campbell, & Samonte, 2006; Adger, Hughes, Folke, Carpenter, & Rockström, 2005; Brand & Jax, 2007; Walker et al., 2006); the ability to maintain and develop while interacting with disturbances and reorganization (social- ecological resilience) (Adger et al., 2005; Berkes & Folke, 1998; Brand & Jax, 2007; Folke, 2006; Schroll et al., 2009); an inherent ability to respond adaptively, which enables firms and regions to 0169-2046/$ – see front matter © 2012 Elsevier B.V. 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