Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems 38 (2020) 5279–5293 DOI:10.3233/JIFS-191904 IOS Press 5279 A framework to estimate dwell time of BRT systems using fuzzy regression Laio Oriel Seman a,d,∗ , Victor Hugo Rodrigues Machado b , Luiz Alberto Koehler c and Eduardo Camponogara d a Graduate Program in Applied Computer Science, Itaja´ ı Valley University (UNIVALI), Brazil b Department of Computer Engineering, Federal University of Technology - Paran´ a (UTFPR), Brazil c Department of Electrical Engineering, Blumenau Regional University (FURB), Brazil d Department of Automation and Systems Engineering, Federal University of Santa Catarina (UFSC), Brazil Abstract. This paper presents adjustments and validation of a model for the process of passenger boarding and alighting of BRT (Bus Rapid Transport) and express bus systems. Such models are of fundamental importance for the implementation of strategies to control the operation of those systems, which allow for quality and efficiency gains in the service. First, a generalized disjunctive programming model is presented in order to adapt a bus headway control formulation according to the number of onboard passengers. Later, as a way to improve the model, real data were collected from the boarding/alighting times of passengers in the Trunk line 10 system in the city of Blumenau, Brazil. These data were used in a two-stage fuzzy regression to take into account the uncertainties associated with the dwell time of the passengers. The actual data collected were used in simulations of the enhanced bus headway control system, showing that even in the presence of disturbances, the system can still operate properly without bunching. Keywords: Fuzzy regression, BRT systems, headway control, dwell time, GDP 1. Introduction Mass public transport, and more generally urban mobility, has been a topic of constant discussion and mobilization of society, which also draws attention in Brazil. Among the main topics discussed, besides the costs of transport tariffs, we can cite the quality and efficiency of the services. A negative factor observed in a large number of bus-based public transportation systems is the deviation of the schedule and/or bus headway (tendency of bunching). These deviations increase the waiting time of users and the costs of operating the transportation system [1–3]. A solution to the problem of real time operating of bus public transport systems is the implementation ∗ Corresponding author. Laio Oriel Seman. E-mail: laioseman @gmail.com. of control strategies for their operation. Given the need for differentiated quality of express bus and BRT (Bus Rapid Transport) systems, the application of real-time operation strategies in these systems is of paramount importance, highlighting the bus holding strategies at stops [4–7]. These real-time strategies make use of prediction models for boarding and alighting times of passen- gers at stops and/or terminals and stations. However, those commonly used models can be overly simplis- tic, implying a representation that does not match the actual observed behavior or is too complex for real- time applications. In a developed country scenario, with buses that do not operate crowded and with adequate road and station infrastructure, these sim- plifications typically used may not be significant. In the case of underdeveloped countries, in the everyday reality of many Brazilian cities, the real behavior of ISSN 1064-1246/20/$35.00 © 2020 – IOS Press and the authors. All rights reserved