RESEARCH ARTICLE Changing temperature profiles and the risk of dengue outbreaks Imelda TrejoID 1 , Martha BarnardID 2 , Julie A. Spencer ID 2,3 , Jeffrey Keithley ID 2,4 , Kaitlyn M. Martinez 2 , Isabel Crooker 2 , Nicolas Hengartner 1,5 , Ethan O. Romero-SeversonID 1 , Carrie Manore ID 1 * 1 T-6 Theoretical Biology and Biophysics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States of America, 2 A-1 Information Systems and Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States of America, 3 Intelligence Community Postdoctoral Research Fellowship Program, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States of America, 4 Department of Computer Science, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, United States of America, 5 Center for Nonlinear Studies, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, United States of America * cmanore@lanl.gov Abstract As temperatures change worldwide, the pattern and competency of disease vectors will change, altering the global distribution of both the burden of infectious disease and the risk of the emergence of those diseases into new regions. To evaluate the risk of potential sum- mer dengue outbreaks triggered by infected travelers under various climate scenarios, we develop an SEIR-type model, run numerical simulations, and conduct sensitivity analyses under a range of temperature profiles. Our model extends existing theoretical frameworks for studying dengue dynamics by introducing temperature dependence of two key parame- ters: the mosquito extrinsic incubation period and the lifespan of mosquitoes, which empiri- cal data suggests are both highly temperature dependent. We find that changing temperature significantly alters dengue risk in an inverted U-shape, with temperatures in the range 27-31˚C producing the highest risk. As temperatures increase beyond 31˚C, the determinants of dengue risk begin to shift from mosquito biting rate and carrying capacity to the duration of the human infectious period, suggesting that changing temperatures not only alter dengue risk but also the potential efficacy of control measures. To illustrate the role of spatial and temporal temperature heterogeneity, we select five US cities where the primary dengue vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti, has been observed, and which have had den- gue cases in the past: Los Angeles, Houston, Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix. Our analysis suggests that an increase of 3˚C leads to an approximate doubling of the risk of dengue in Los Angeles and Houston, but a reduction of risk in Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix due to extreme heat. Introduction The global reported incidence of Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne disease caused by dengue virus [1], has increased 8-fold in the past two decades. Almost half of the world’s population is PLOS CLIMATE PLOS Climate | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000115 February 15, 2023 1 / 18 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 a1111111111 OPEN ACCESS Citation: Trejo I, Barnard M, Spencer JA, Keithley J, Martinez KM, Crooker I, et al. (2023) Changing temperature profiles and the risk of dengue outbreaks. PLOS Clim 2(2): e0000115. https://doi. org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000115 Editor: Samuel Nii Ardey Codjoe, University of Ghana, GHANA Received: January 24, 2022 Accepted: December 21, 2022 Published: February 15, 2023 Copyright: This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication. Data Availability Statement: All data used in this analysis are publicly available. Details are provided in S1 Table. Funding: IT and NH were funded by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program of Los Alamos National Laboratory under project numbers 20210709ER and 20210043DR. IT, MB, JK, KMM, IC, EOR, and CM were funded by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program of Los Alamos National Laboratory under project number 20210062DR. NH benefited from the support and resources of the Center for Non-