https://doi.org/10.1177/0192512121992671
International Political Science Review
2023, Vol. 44(3) 334–353
© The Author(s) 2021
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DOI: 10.1177/0192512121992671
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Class voting or economic voting?
Electoral support for chavismo
(1998–2015)
Robert Bonifácio and João Carlos Amoroso Botelho
Federal University of Goiás, Brazil
Abstract
This article analyses electoral support for chavismo in Venezuela from 1998 to 2015, comprising five
presidential elections (1998, 2000, 2006, 2012, and 2013) and the legislative election of 2015. Drawing on
a comprehensive historical series, the findings contradict an influential body of literature on Venezuelan
politics and show that economic voting prevailed during the analysed period. In relation to class voting, the
analysis does not find a monotonic vote, in which the poor supported Hugo Chávez and his allies, whereas
the rich rejected them, at each election. The direction of associations between these classes and voting for
chavismo varied over the investigated period. The findings have important implications for Latin American
politics, showing the relevance of economic factors for the left turn in regional politics and helping explain
the recent losses of leftist parties in presidential elections.
Keywords
Electoral behaviour, Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, left turn, Latin America
Introduction
During approximately two decades of chavismo supremacy in Venezuela, much has been written
to explain the electoral support given to Hugo Chávez and his political allies since his first elec-
tion as president in 1998. A common explanation relies on class voting, according to which the
poor are more likely to vote for chavismo, whereas the rich are more likely to vote against it.
Drawing on a comprehensive historical data series, this article contradicts this claim and shows
that voters’ assessment of the national economy plays a more important role as an explanatory
factor of the vote for chavismo over the analysed period. At the regional level, this finding rein-
forces the relevance of economic factors for the left turn in Latin America and helps explain the
recent difficulties of leftist presidents trying to hold office in the region. The article uses opinion
poll data to analyse five presidential elections (1998, 2000, 2006, 2012, and 2013) and one legis-
lative election (2015) in Venezuela
1
.
Corresponding author:
João Carlos Amoroso Botelho, Faculdade de Ciências Sociais, Federal University of Goiás, Campus II, Goiânia, Goiás
74001-970, Brazil.
Email: joaocarlosbotelho@hotmail.com
992671IPS 0 0 10.1177/0192512121992671International Political Science ReviewBonifácio and Botelho
research-article 2021
Original Research Article