Enteric methane emissions and their response to agro-ecological and livestock production systems dynamics in Zimbabwe Walter Svinurai a , Farai Mapanda b, ⁎, Dingane Sithole c , Elisha N. Moyo d , Kudzai Ndidzano d , Alois Tsiga d , Washington Zhakata d a Animal Nutrition and Production, University of Zimbabwe Marondera College of Agricultural Sciences and Technology, P.O Box 35, Marondera, Zimbabwe b Department of Soil Science and Agricultural Engineering, University of Zimbabwe, 1 Mt Pleasant Dive, Mt Pleasant, P.O. Box MP167, Mt. Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe c Business Council for Sustainable Development, c/o Chemplex Corporation Limited, 93 Park Lane, P.O Box BW668, Borrowdale, Harare, Zimbabwe d Climate Change Management Department, Ministry of Environment, Water and Climate, 11th Floor, Kaguvi Building, Corner Simon V Muzenda Street/Central Avenue, P. Bag 7753, Causeway, Harare, Zimbabwe HIGHLIGHTS • Per capita emissions are decreasing at -0.3 kg CH 4 per year. • Domestic meat export was not a signifi- cant emissions driver. • Emissions were responsive to climate variables in drought years. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT abstract article info Article history: Received 19 June 2017 Received in revised form 7 October 2017 Accepted 25 October 2017 Available online 6 November 2017 Editor: P. Kassomenos Without disregarding its role as one of the key sources of sustainable livelihoods in Zimbabwe and other devel- oping countries, livestock production contributes significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through en- teric fermentation. For the livestock sector to complement global efforts to mitigate climate change, accurate estimations of GHG emissions are required. Methane emissions from enteric fermentation in Zimbabwe were quantified over 35 years under four production systems and five agro-ecological regions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission factor methodology was used to derive CH 4 emissions from seven livestock categories at national level. Emission intensities based on human population, domestic export of livestock meat and climate variables were used to assess emission drivers and predict future emission trends. Over the past 35 years, enteric fermentation CH 4 emissions from all livestock categories ranged between 158.3 and 204.3 Gg year -1 . Communal lands, typified by indigenous livestock breeds, had the highest contribution of be- tween 58% and 75% of the total annual emissions followed by livestock from large scale commercial (LSC) farms. The decreasing livestock population on LSC farms and consequent decline in production could explain the lack of a positive response of CH 4 emissions to human population growth, and decreasing emissions per capita over time at -0.3 kg CH 4 capita -1 year -1 . The emissions trend showed that even if Zimbabwe's national live- stock population doubles in 2030 relative to the 2014 estimates, the country would still remain with similar mag- nitude of CH 4 emission intensity as that of 1980. No significant correlations (P N 0.05) were found between emissions and domestic export of beef and pork. Further research on enhanced characterisation of livestock Keywords: Emission intensity Enteric fermentation Methane Production system Zimbabwe Science of the Total Environment 616–617 (2018) 710–719 ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail address: faraimaps@agric.uz.ac.zw (F. Mapanda). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.257 0048-9697/© 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Science of the Total Environment journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/scitotenv