Demography, Vol. 29, No.2, May 1992 Stemming The Tide? Assessing the Deterrent Effects of the Immigration Reform and Control Act* Katharine M. Donato Department of Sociology Louisiana State University Baton Rouge, LA 70803 Jorge Durand Centro de Investigaciones sobre los Movimientos Sociales Universidad de Guadalajara Guadalajara, Mexico Douglas S. Massey Population Research Center Department of Sociology University of Chicago Chicago, IL 60637 This study uses a new source of data to assess the degree to which the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) deterred undocumented migration from Mexico to the United States. Data were collected from migrants interviewed in seven Mexican communities during the winters of 1987 through 1989, as well as from out-migrants from those communities who subsequently located in the United States. We conduct time-series experiments that examine changes in migrants' behavior before and after passage of the IRCA in 1986. We estimate trends in the probability of taking a first illegal trip, the probability of repeat migration, the probability of apprehension by the Border Patrol, the probability of using a border smuggler, and the costs of illegal border crossing. In none of these analyses could we detect any evidence that IRCA has significantly deterred undocumented migration from Mexico. In 1986 Congress passed legislation aimed at curbing undocumented migration to the United States. The Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) sought to reduce illegal migration through sanctions of employers, increased border enforcement, and a legalization program for undocumented migrants already in the United States. Citizens, policy makers, and migration researchers on both sides of the border now are asking whether IRCA achieved its stated aim. Since 1986 researchers have sought to evaluate the consequences of IRCA, especially * This research was made possible by grants from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (HD-24041) and the Sloan Foundation, whose support is gratefully acknowledged. The authors thank Frank D. Bean and Wayne A. Cornelius for their useful comments. Copyright © 1992 Population Association of America 139 Downloaded from http://read.dukeupress.edu/demography/article-pdf/29/2/139/904251/139donato.pdf by guest on 08 November 2021