Volume 2 | Issue 3 ©2016 IJIRCT | ISSN: 2454-5988
IJIRCT1601014 International Journal of Innovative Research and Creative Technology www.ijirct.org 78
Inflation And Economic Growth Nexus In Nigeria
Adamu Jibrilla
Department of Economics
Adamawa State University
Mubi, Nigeria
Bawuro, Mohammed Buba
Department of Accounting
Adamawa State University
Mubi, Nigeria
Abstract—This study was conducted on the “Inflation and
Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeria” using annual time series
data from 1961 to 2014. The aim of the study was to determine
the relationship between inflation and economic growth in
Nigeria for a longer period of 54 years. This study was organized
into five different sections. Section I was on introduction, section
II was on literature review and empirical literature, section III
dealt with the methodology of the study, section IV was on the
results and discussions while section V was on conclusion and
recommendations. Preliminary tests of stationarity were
conducted and the series under investigation were found to be
I(0) variables. The study employed the use of Ordinary Least
Squares method, Johansen Cointegration method, Error
Correction mechanism and Granger Causality method to
ascertain both the impact of inflation on economic growth as well
as the relationship between the two variables. The result of the
OLS regression analysis revealed a negative impact of inflation
on economic growth in Nigeria, although the coefficient is
statistically insignificant which implied that inflation does not
influence economic growth in the country over the sample period.
The cointegration test result indicated the existence of a long-run
equilibrium relationship between inflation and economic growth
in Nigeria. The error correction term was correctly signed and
statistically significant which confirmed that the two variables
under study converge towards a long run equilibrium
relationship but the speed of adjustment appeared to be slow as
only 17% of the error was being corrected each year. The
Granger causality test result showed that there was no either
unidirectional or bidirectional causality between inflation and
economic growth in Nigeria from 1961 to 2014. Based on the
findings of this study, it was recommended that both fiscal and
monetary policy measures be taken to reduce inflation rate in
Nigeria.
Keywords— Inflation and Economic Growth Nexus
I. INTRODUCTION
The major objective of macroeconomic policies for every
nation is to attain sustainable economic growth together with
price stability. The importance given to price stability when
conducting monetary policy amongst other things is to
stimulate sustainable economic growth as well as strengthening
the purchasing power of the local currency. The question of
whether or not inflation is detrimental to economic growth has
recently been a subject of strong argument to policy makers
and macroeconomists. The bone of contention is that whether
inflation is necessary for economic growth or it is harmful to
economic growth. The effects of inflation on economic growth
are more or less certainly biased towards that view that
inflation is detrimental to the growth of an economy.
Datta and Kumar [5] contend that the rate of economic
growth primarily depends on the rate of capital formation and
the rate of capital formation depends on the rate of savings and
investment. The relationship between inflation and economic
growth has been argued in various economic literatures and the
arguments appeared to have shown differences in relation with
the condition of world economy order. Policies which promote
increase in aggregate demand could cause increase in
production and inflation too as a consequence. In such
situations and periods, inflation cannot be considered a serious
problem as it can be regarded as having a positive impact on
economic growth.
The maintaining of price stability is one of the
macroeconomic issues faced by every economy including the
Nigerian economy. Moreover, sustainable economic growth
along with price stability is the ultimate goal of every
economy. Price instability which is being considered as either
being Inflation or deflation poses a serious concern to all
economic agents. Jhingan [12] defined inflation as a persistent
and appreciable rise in the general level of prices. However, a
rise in the general price level can only be considered as
inflation when it is persistent, continuing and sustained.
Demberg and McDougall are much more explicit in referring
to inflation as a continuing rise in prices as measured by an
index such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or by the
implicit price deflator for Gross National Product [15]. In an
inflationary economy, it is difficult for the national currency to
act as medium of exchange and a store of value without having
an adverse effect on income distribution, output and
employment (CBN, 1984). Inflation is characterized by a fall in
the value of the country’s currency and a rise in her exchange
rate with other nation’s currencies. This is quite obvious in the
case of the value of the Naira (N), which was N1 to $1 (one US
Dollar) in 1981, average of N100 to $1 in year 2000 (Okeke,
2000) and over N128 to $1 in 2003. This decline in the value of
the Naira coincides with the period of inflationary growth in
Nigeria, and is an unwholesome development that has led to a
drastic decline in the living standard of the average Nigerian
The main thrust of this paper is to empirically examine the
long run relationship between inflation and economic growth in
Nigeria using the Johansen Co- integration approach and to
examine the causality among the variables using the Granger
Causality method. The study is organized into five sections.
Section I deals with the introduction, section II deals with the
literature reviews and empirical studies, section III is
concerned with the methodology of the study, section IV is on
empirical results and discussion, and section V deals with
conclusion and policy recommendations.
The need for this study was born out of the desire to know
if actually there is a relationship between inflation and
economic growth in Nigeria from 1961 to 2014 making about
54 observations which covers a longer period of time and with