International Journal of Public Opinion Research Vol.  No.   ß The Author(s) . Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The World Association for Public Opinion Research. All rights reserved. doi:./ijpor/edz Advance Access publication  August  How Issue Salience Explains the Rise of the Populist Right in Western Europe James Dennison Migration Policy Centre, European University Institute, Italy Abstract This article tests whether variation in issue salience can explain the rise of the populist right in Western Europe. By taking a novel cross-country and cross-time approach at both the aggregate- and individual levels using panel data, I robustly demonstrate that the salience of immigration positively affects electoral support for the populist right. I also find, using a structural equation modeling approach, that the salience of immigration, in turn, is partially caused by immigration rates. I do not find evidence of a positive effect of the salience of the issues of crime, unemployment, the economy, or terrorism. I find evidence of a positive effect of the salience of Europe at the individual level, which is of a similar scale to immigration. The marked increase in electoral support for the populist right parties in Western Europe has been one of the most significant political trends of the st century. Particularly since , there has been a pronounced increase in the vote share of parties variously labeled as populist radical right, national populist, and populist right in countries such as Austria, Denmark, France, Italy, and the Netherlands—each of which already had established parties matching these labels—and in Germany, Sweden, and the UK—where the populist right’s electoral impact remains a relative nov- elty. This phenomenon has impacted policy responses of other parties, electoral outcomes, party systems, and government coalitions across Western Europe. All correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to James Dennison, PhD, European University Institute, Villa Malafrasca, Via Giovanni Boccaccio, 151, 50133 Firenze, Italy. E-mail: james.dennison@eui.eu Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/ijpor/article/32/3/397/5549978 by University of East Anglia user on 02 July 2023