https://doi.org/10.1177/0306624X20969946 International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology 2021, Vol. 65(4) 409–433 © The Author(s) 2020 Article reuse guidelines: sagepub.com/journals-permissions DOI: 10.1177/0306624X20969946 journals.sagepub.com/home/ijo Article Development and Crime Drop: A Time-Series Analysis of Crime Rates in Hong Kong in the Last Three Decades Xi Chen 1 and Hua Zhong 1 Abstract Although the recent crime drop in Western societies has rejuvenated crime trend studies, little is known about the crime trends and the corresponding explanations in the East. This study aims to fill the gaps by examining different types of offenses in Hong Kong between 1976 and 2017. Specifically, this study tests and evaluates major macro-level theoretical approaches explaining crime trends, including institutional anomie theory, routine activities theory, and deterrence theory. Using Error Correction Models, our analyses reveal that the strengths of different social institutions are negatively associated with crime rates, showing strong support to institutional anomie theory. The results also partially support routine activities theory by demonstrating that levels of economic development are negatively associated with both violent and property crime rates, and the number of mobile cellular subscriptions is negatively related to homicide rates. Deterrence explanations are mainly supported for property crime. These findings provide theoretical insights on the etiology of crime and also yield important policy suggestions on how to sustain the observed decline in crime rates in modern societies. Keywords development, crime drop, institutional anomie, routine activities, deterrence Introduction As shown by both official crime statistics and victim surveys, there is a substantial decline in crime rates in many types of common or street crimes in the United States 1 The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong Corresponding Author: Hua Zhong, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, 4/F Sino Building, Shatin NT, Hong Kong. Email: sarazhong@cuhk.edu.hk 969946IJO XX X 10.1177/0306624X20969946International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative CriminologyChen and Zhong research-article 2020