Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Land Use Policy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/landusepol The Scops owl (Otus scops) under human-induced environmental change pressure Danijel Ivajnšič a,b , Damijan Denac c , Katarina Denac c , Nataša Pipenbaher b, *, Mitja Kaligarič b,d a Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts, University of Maribor, Koroška 160, Maribor, Slovenia b Department of Biology, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Koroška 160, Maribor, Slovenia c DOPPS-BirdLife Slovenia, Tržaška cesta 2, Ljubljana, Slovenia d Faculty of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Maribor, Pivola 10, Hoče, Slovenia ARTICLE INFO Keywords: Environmental change Geospatial predictors Male calling Breeding suitability Landscape planning Scops Owl ABSTRACT Biodiversity is declining across Europe. Modern agricultural practices, habitat fragmentation, land abandonment and climate change are key factors causing current trends in environmental change. Mobile organisms such as raptors, positioned high in the food chain, are good indicators of negative or positive landscape dynamics, since their response is fast. This assumption was tested by investigating the Scops Owl (Otus scops) population in a traditional Central European cultural landscape (Goričko Nature Park [GNP]) in Slovenia. The negative trend in male calling Scops Owls was correlated with static and dynamic environmental change variables derived from remotely sensed or field-based, multi-temporal data sources. Key geospatial predictors were identified and used for bird calling and breeding (C&B) suitability modelling. All geospatial models developed predicted a decline in C&B suitability (even by 33%) in almost all areas where the bird is currently active. However, the NE part of the GNP could achieve better C&B conditions for theScops Owl in the coming years (a potential 36% increase in suitability). Predictions indicate that more effort and action, to conserve the Scops Owl in the study area should be implemented in the N, NE and E part of the hilly GNP. Our results are thus highly applicable not just for decision makers in this protected area but rather in all areas across the Scops Owl’s continental population, since the methodology is easily replicable and transferable. 1. Introduction The Scops Owl Otus scops, a small nocturnal raptor, is typical of open and semi-open grassland habitats of the middle-lower altitudes of the Palearctic (Cramp, 1985), and is considered by many authors as one of the most - and generally declining owls in Europe, owing to one major threat: changes in agricultural practices (Arlettaz, Fournier, Juillard, Lugon, Rossel, & Sierro, 1991; Bavoux et al., 1997; Denac et al., 2019). That, along with predation by the Tawny Owls Strix aluco (Sergio et al., 2009) is causing a decline in both, the Mediterranean and the continental population (Tucker and Heath, 1994). However, its IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) status is de- termined as “least concern”, following the global perception. Never- theless, the continental populations in particular are rapidly declining (Štumberger, 2000), especially along the northern borderline of its distributional range, extending from Switzerland to Ukraine (Glutz von Blotzheim, 1994; Štumberger, 2000; Tucker et al., 1994) from where this birds migrate to suitable overwintering sites in southern Europe or Sub-Saharan Africa owing to insect unavailability (https://ec.europa. eu/environment/nature/conservation/species/guidance/index_en. htm). It is known that the appearance of this declining raptor is associated with a mosaic of land-use categories (Denac, 2019; Denac et al., 2019), which confirmed an earlier hypothesis that Scops Owl decline was driven by agricultural change (Arlettaz, 1990; Arlettaz et al., 1991; Bavoux et al., 1997; Treggiari et al., 2013). Thus, modern agricultural practices, along with fragmentation and land abandonment in recent decades, have caused substantial biodiversity decline across Europe (Cousins et al., 2007; Kaligarič and Ivajnšič, 2014). This continent-wide process has also caused enormous reduction in European bird popula- tions (Flohre et al., 2011; Pain and Pienkowski, 1997; Treggiari et al., 2013). The Scops Owl decline should therefore be understood in the context of a general decline in open-landscape birds and birds asso- ciated with man-made landscape mosaics, severely threatened by https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104853 Received 30 March 2020; Received in revised form 4 June 2020; Accepted 10 June 2020 ⁎ Corresponding author at: Koroška cesta 160, 2000, Maribor, Slovenia. E-mail addresses: dani.ivajnsic@um.si (D. Ivajnšič), damijan.denac@dopps.si (D. Denac), katarina.denac@dopps.si (K. Denac), natasa.pipenbaher@um.si (N. Pipenbaher), mitja.kaligaric@um.si (M. Kaligarič). Land Use Policy 99 (2020) 104853 0264-8377/ © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. T