Pollcy, Research, and External Affairs WORKING PAPERS Agriculture Operations Southern Africa Department Africa Regional Office The WorldBank July 1991 WPS729 Is Export Diversification the Best Wayto Achieve Export Growth and Stability? A Look at Three African Countries Ridwan Ali Jeffrey Alwang and Paul B. Siegel Policymakers - concerned with the instability and downward trend in exportearningsfor Malawi,Tanzania, and Zimbabwe between 1961 and 1987- tend to proposetheremedyof export diversification.But horizontal diversification would havepro- duced lowerexportearningsand moreinstability. The Policy.Researcb. and External Affairs Complex distuibutes PRE Working Papera to disseniinatethe rindings of woHk in progress and to encourage the exchange of ideas amnong Bank staff and aU others interested in development issues These papers carTy the names of the authors, reflect only their views, and should be used and cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions are the authors' own. They should not be attributed to the World Bank, its Hoard of Directors, its management, or any of its member countries. Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized