Ecological Modelling 352 (2017) 1–18 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Ecological Modelling journa l h om epa ge: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolmodel Predicting shifts in large herbivore distributions under climate change and management using a spatially-explicit ecosystem model Timothy J. Fullman a,*,1 , Erin L. Bunting a , Gregory A. Kiker b,c , Jane Southworth a a University of Florida, Department of Geography, 3141 Turlington Hall, P.O. Box 117315, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA b University of Florida, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, 1741 Museum Road, Bldg. 474, P.O. Box 110570, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA c University of KwaZulu-Natal, School of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, South Africa a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 21 October 2016 Received in revised form 27 February 2017 Accepted 28 February 2017 Keywords: SAVANNA Management Climate change Elephant Artificial water Kruger National Park a b s t r a c t Wildlife managers use a variety of interventions to alter species distributions but it is uncertain how effective these techniques will be under shifting climate. There is growing recognition of the importance of including climate change scenarios into management planning and actions, but this is lacking in many systems. The spatially-explicit ecosystem model, SAVANNA, was used to predict shifts in large herbivore distribution from 2020 to 2079 under scenarios of climate change, water management, and elephant pop- ulation growth in Kruger National Park, South Africa. Directional persistence was used to indicate where five large herbivore species – elephant (Loxodonta africana), buffalo (Syncerus caffer), impala (Aepyceros melampus), wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus), and zebra (Equus quagga) – were predicted to increase or decrease their density relative to historic conditions. The overlap in herbivore distributions both within and between species was measured to indicate which change agents were likely to influence future dis- tributions as well as when those influences are expected to occur. We found that patterns differed across climate scenarios. Altering artificial water availability had a mixed overall effect on the persistence of herbivore densities across the park, but strongly influenced the overlap in both within- and between- species distributions. Elephant numbers generally only had an influence under the most extreme case of population growth. While management actions at the scale of large protected areas or regions may not be able to directly alter climate outcomes, they have the potential to mitigate other stressors, increasing the opportunity for species and ecosystems to adapt to uncertain climate effects. Simulation studies of future conditions under interacting climate and management, such as presented here, have important potential to inform decision making, but do not remove the need for continued monitoring and adaptive management. © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Wildlife managers have long sought to manipulate animal num- bers and distributions to meet management objectives. They have employed a variety of techniques to accomplish their goals, includ- ing provision or removal of artificial water (Smit et al., 2007a), fencing (Hayward and Kerley, 2009; Somers and Hayward, 2012), culling (Wasserberg et al., 2009), translocation (Griffith et al., 1989; Batson et al., 2015), and contraception (Garrott, 1995; Miller et al., 1998). In many cases, opinions have shifted over time about which * Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: fullman.tim@gmail.com (T.J. Fullman), bunterin@ufl.edu (E.L. Bunting), gkiker@ufl.edu (G.A. Kiker), jsouthwo@ufl.edu (J. Southworth). 1 Present address: The Wilderness Society, 705 Christensen Drive, Anchorage, AK 99501, USA. strategies are most effective and which are socially acceptable (e.g., Owen-Smith et al., 2006; Smit and Grant, 2009). As evidence of climate change increases (Alexander et al., 2006; Gallant et al., 2014), it is becoming evident that climate shifts also have the potential to influence population numbers and species distribution patterns (Chen et al., 2011; McCarty, 2001; McLaughlin et al., 2002; Parmesan, 2006). In systems subject to climate shifts, management uncertainty increases as population changes may enhance or counter management efforts. Many past studies of the effects of management interventions on target species have not considered potential impacts of climate change (e.g., Hilbers et al., 2015; Smit and Grant, 2009; Smith et al., 2010). On the other hand, there is increasing recognition of the importance of including climate change scenarios into management planning and actions (Heller and Zavaleta, 2009) and that predictions of climate change http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.02.030 0304-3800/© 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.