policy brief CLIMATE POLICY Limited evidence that carbon tax rebates have increased public support for carbon pricing We fnd limited evidence that individual or household rebates (also called dividends) have increased public support for carbon taxes in Canada and Switzerland. In the presence of partisan and interest group confict over climate policy, policymakers should not assume that voter support for carbon pricing will automatically increase with the inclusion of rebates. Matto Mildenberger  1 ✉ , Erick Lachapelle  2 , Kathryn Harrison 3 and Isabelle Stadelmann-Stefen  4 BASED ON Mildenberger, M., Lachapelle, E., Harrison, K. & Stadelmann-Steffen, I. Nat. Clim. Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01268-3 (2022). The policy problem Advocates view carbon taxation as a cost-effective climate policy that will deliver emissions reductions and spur investment in technological innovation, while raising revenues that can be deployed to address potential costs experienced by low-income households. However, voters often react negatively to the visible costs of a carbon tax, which they can perceive as costly, ineffective and unfair. As a result, governments have been reluctant to introduce carbon taxes, proposals have been rejected by citizens in referenda and, even when adopted, carbon taxes have sometimes been reversed. In response, some academics and environmental organizations have called for a ‘carbon tax and dividend’, in which carbon tax revenue is recycled back to individuals or households as a rebate or dividend. Carbon pricing with revenue recycling maintains the theoretical benefits of carbon pricing but may also strengthen public support for a cost-effective climate policy. The findings Neither Canada nor Switzerland has implemented rebates in a highly visible way. A decade after adoption, we find that 85% of respondents in Switzerland were unaware that they receive rebates. Awareness was higher soon after the implementation of Canada’s carbon tax, but 25% and 45% of respondents in two provinces, respectively, that were subject to the federal tax did not know that they had received an income tax credit. Most citizens in both countries significantly underestimated the value of rebates received. When informed of the true value, Swiss respondents were slightly more supportive of the current tax but not of a tax increase. In Canada, information on rebates did not increase public support. Tracking policy support over time revealed no difference between Canadian provinces with and without rebates. Instead, we found that carbon tax support was conditioned more by respondents’ partisan allegiances than by rebates (Fig. 1). The study Our analysis draws on public opinion surveys in the only two countries to have adopted carbon taxes with widespread rebates. In Switzerland, we surveyed 1,050 adults nationwide in 2019, half of whom were randomly selected to receive information on how the rebate works as well as on the value of their carbon tax rebates. In Canada, carbon pricing varies across provinces. We surveyed a cohort of residents (n = 890) in five provinces over five waves between 2019 and 2020, before, during and after implementation of Canada’s tax and rebate programme. In the two provinces where rebates were implemented, half of the respondents were randomly provided accurate information about their tax dividends. Comparing rebate perceptions and carbon tax support between those who received accurate information and those who did not allowed us to assess the impact of rebate information on public support for carbon pricing. ❐ Published: xx xx xxxx https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01270-9 Messages for policy • Rebates do not ofer a panacea to public opposition to carbon taxation. Taxpayers often remain unaware of the rebate’s existence or underestimate the rebate’s value. • Public support for carbon pricing remains structured by partisanship and ideology, even when individuals or households receive material benefts. • In the presence of partisan and interest group confict over carbon taxes, when the costs of carbon taxation are salient, policymakers should not assume that voters’ support for carbon pricing will automatically increase with rebate inclusion. • Eforts to increase the political efcacy of dividends must focus on ensuring that citizens understand this policy instrument and must test whether increasing dividend visibility can increase support. 1 Department of Political Science, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA. 2 Department of Political Science, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Québec, Canada. 3 Department of Political Science, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. 4 Institute of Political Science and Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland. ✉ e-mail: mildenberger@ucsb.edu NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange