Vol.:(0123456789) Trends in Organized Crime https://doi.org/10.1007/s12117-021-09417-y 1 3 Empty pack survey to estimate Illicit Tobacco Trade in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina Maria Elisabet Pizarro 1  · Gabriel Giacobone 1  · Cinthia Shammah 1  · Michal Stoklosa 2 Accepted: 2 May 2021 © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2021 Abstract While Illicit Tobacco Trade (ITT) is a serious threat to the efectiveness of tobacco control policies worldwide, to this day tobacco-industry independent estimations of the size of the market for illicit tobacco products in the region are still very scarce. There is evidence that the tobacco industry often manipulates ITT estimates to infu- ence policy-making and hinder tobacco control measures. In this study, we sought to bridge this knowledge gap by generating data on the prevalence of cigarette illicit trade in the city of Buenos Aires, capital of Argentina. We used an empty tobacco pack survey approach with a simple random cluster sampling design. A total of 4,906 packs were collected. Determination of packs as licit/illicit was conducted by forensic analy- sis of tax stamps and econometric modelling. Cigarette packs manufactured in country dominated the sample (97%), of which 3.71% (CI 95%:3.18%-4.24%) could be catego- rized as illicit cigarettes carrying counterfeit stamps. Most illicit packs (96%) belonged to low price brands manufactured by national tobacco companies, which suggests that low-income households may be more afected by ITT products. It is essential to imple- ment an efective track and trace system that incorporates mechanisms to hinder stamp forgery and control stamp authenticity. A combined efort to increase tobacco taxation and reduce ITT is necessary to reduce tobacco consumption. Keywords Economics · Illegal tobacco products · Public Policy · Low/Middle Income Country * Maria Elisabet Pizarro marita.pizarro@fcargentina.org Extended author information available on the last page of the article