Abstract
Our study examines the conventional wisdom that causality runs from selected macroeconomic variables to economic growth in
Ethiopia. Time series data from 1975 to 2018 were used to determine short and long run relationships among variables. A Johansen’s
Cointegration test was used to investigate the presence of long run equilibrium relationship between variables while the Vector Error
Correction Model and Granger Causality were used to test the short and long run causality direction between variables. The data were
derived from the National Bank of Ethiopia (2020) and World Bank report (2020). Findings reveal that domestic savings, capital formation,
exchange rate and price infation have a positive and signifcant impact on long-run growth, although they have an insignifcant
impact in the short run. The result of causality generated a bidirectional association running from trade openness and domestic saving
to growth. Unidirectional causality is exhibited between the rest of the variables and economic growth. The estimated coefcient of
error correction term was found -0.3751, showing that deviations from long run equilibrium are corrected at 37.51% annually and
converge towards its long run steady state path. This indicates a signal that long run policy toward inspiring selected macro variables
has a signifcant impact on growth
Keywords: Macroeconomics, Economic growth, Time-series data.
Impact of selected macroeconomic variables on economic
growth in Ethiopia: A time series analysis
Showkat A. Shah
1
, Netsanet Gizaw
2
RESEARCH ARTICLE
© The Scientifc Temper. 2023
Received: 03/04/2023 Accepted: 10/05/2023 Published : 30/06/2023
1
Department of Economics, College of Business and Economics,
Mizan Tepi University, Mizan, Ethiopia.
2
Department of Economics, College of Business and Economics,
Mizan Tepi University, Mizan, Ethiopia.
*Corresponding Author: Netsanet Gizaw, Department of
Economics, College of Business and Economics, Mizan-Tepi
University, Mizan, Ethiopia, E-Mail: netsigizaw2012@gmail.com
How to cite this article: Shah, S.A., Gizaw, N. (2023).
Impact of selected macroeconomic variables on economic
growth in Ethiopia: A time series analysis. The Scientifc
Temper, 14(2):533-542.
Doi: 10.58414/SCIENTIFICTEMPER.2023.14.2.47
Source of support: Nil
Confict of interest: None.
Introducton
Economic development is the major goals of every economy
and needs economic growth as its requisites. Growth
refers to an increase in total income, taking into account
a growing population convoyed by decisive changes in
the structure of the economy. Countries can experience
growth when there is an upsurge in real gross domestic
product (Rafy et al., 2018). Likewise, growth relies on many
factors, which reflects how nations can speed up and
realize their growth. Economists theoretically proved that
macroeconomic variables such as the expansion of capital,
The Scientifc Temper (2023) Vol. 14 (2): 533-542 E-ISSN: 2231-6396, ISSN: 0976-8653
Doi: 10.58414/SCIENTIFICTEMPER.2023.14.2.47 https://scientifctemper.com/
labor, savings and favorable international trade relation can
boost economic growth at reasonably lower price infation
(Gofe, 2018). Generally, the economic literature revealed
some macroeconomic variables are the key determinant
of growth theoretically and empirically. As a result, the
dynamic relationship between macroeconomic variables
and growth in developing economies continues to receive
signifcant empirical attention in ever-growing literature.
Most of reviewed empirical literature produced a mixed
view concerning impact of macroeconomic variables on
economic growth. Yet, the macroeconomic natures of the
countries play a key role in determining economic growth
to vary across countries. Theoretically, the conventional
wisdom confirms causal relation runs from selected
macroeconomic variables to economic growth, but some
other empirical fndings also indicated that this does not
hold true. This means that fndings on the nexus between
macroeconomic variables and economic growths are still
inconclusive.
In Sub Sahara African countries like Ethiopia with
abundant resources, inducing labor force participation,
capital formation through savings, opening the economy
to the external world, and achieving reasonable price
infation and exchange rate are desirable to foster continued
growth. It started to record a double-digit growth through
its integration into economies of globalization and