Environ Monit Assess (2011) 173:251–266 DOI 10.1007/s10661-010-1385-8 Estimation of late twentieth century land-cover change in California Benjamin M. Sleeter · Tamara S. Wilson · Christopher E. Soulard · Jinxun Liu Received: 30 June 2009 / Accepted: 11 February 2010 / Published online: 9 March 2010 © US Government 2010 Abstract We present the first comprehensive multi-temporal analysis of land-cover change for California across its major ecological regions and primary land-cover types. Recently completed satellite-based estimates of land-cover and land- use change information for large portions of the United States allow for consistent measure- ment and comparison across heterogeneous land- scapes. Landsat data were employed within a pure-panel stratified one-stage cluster sample to estimate and characterize land-cover change for 1973–2000. Results indicate anthropogenic and natural disturbances, such as forest cutting and fire, were the dominant changes, followed by large B. M. Sleeter (B ) · T. S. Wilson · C. E. Soulard United States Geological Survey, Western Geographic Science Center, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA e-mail: bsleeter@usgs.gov T. S. Wilson e-mail: tswilson@usgs.gov C. E. Soulard e-mail: csoulard@usgs.gov J. Liu Stinger Ghaffarian Technologies (SGT, Inc.), Contractor to the US Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, Sioux Falls, SD 57198, USA e-mail: jxliu@usgs.gov fluctuations between agriculture and rangelands. Contrary to common perception, agriculture re- mained relatively stable over the 27-year period with an estimated loss of 1.0% of agricultural land. The largest net declines occurred in the grass- lands/shrubs class at 5,131 km 2 and forest class at 4,722 km 2 . Developed lands increased by 37.6%, composing an estimated 4.2% of the state’s land cover by 2000. Keywords Land cover · Land use · California · Change · Trends Introduction Land-surface change is a first-order driver of cli- mate change (Feddema et al. 2005) and biogeo- chemical cycling (Houghton et al. 1999; Casperson et al. 2000), affecting the ability of ecosystems to provide goods and services (Foley et al. 2005). Both the National Research Council and the US Climate Change Science Plan identify land-use dynamics as a core research area (NRC 2001; CCSP 2003). However, there is a lack of spatially and temporally consistent quantitative informa- tion describing the rates and types of land-use and land-cover (LULC) change at regional scales. This information is needed by various disciplines. For example, it has been recommended that the next generation of general circulation climate models