Research Article
Short-Term PV Power Forecasting Using a Hybrid
TVF-EMD-ELM Strategy
Reski Khelifi ,
1
Mawloud Guermoui ,
1
Abdelaziz Rabehi ,
2
Ayoub Taallah ,
3
Abdelhalim Zoukel ,
4,5
Sherif S. M. Ghoneim ,
6
Mohit Bajaj ,
7,8,9
Kareem M. AboRas ,
10
and Ievgen Zaitsev
11
1
Applied Research Unit in Renewable Energies URAER, Renewable Energy Development Center CDER, Ghardaia 47133, Algeria
2
Ziane Achour University of Djelfa, Djelfa, Algeria
3
College of Physics, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
4
Laboratory Physico•Chemistry of Materials, Laghouat University, Algeria
5
Center for Scientifc and Technical Research in Physicochemical Analysis (PTAPC•Laghouat•CRAPC), Laghouat, Algeria
6
Electrical Engineering Department, College of Engineering, Taif University, P. O. Box 11099, Taif 21944, Saudi Arabia
7
Applied Science Research Center, Applied Science Private University, Amman 11931, Jordan
8
Department of Electrical Engineering, Graphic Era (Deemed to be University), Dehradun 248002, ndia
9
Graphic Era Hill University, Dehradun 248002, ndia
10
Department of Electrical Power and Machines, Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
11
Department of Teoretical Electrical Engineering and Diagnostics of Electrical Equipment, nstitute of Electrodynamics,
National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Peremogy, 56, Kyiv•57, 03680, Ukraine
Correspondence should be addressed to Ievgen Zaitsev; zaitsev@i.ua
Received 26 October 2022; Revised 19 January 2023; Accepted 20 January 2023; Published 13 February 2023
Academic Editor: Davide Falabretti
Copyright © 2023 Reski Khelif et al. Tis is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License,
which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Tis paper discusses the efcient implementation of a new hybrid approach to forecasting short•term PV power production for
four diferent PV plants in Algeria. Te developed model incorporates a time•varying flter•empirical mode decomposition (TVF•
EMD) and an extreme learning machine (ELM) as an essence regression. Te TVF•EMD technique is used to deal with the
fuctuation of PV power data by splitting it into a series of more stable and constant subseries. Te specifed set of features
(intrinsic mode functions (IMFs)) is utilized for training and improving our forecasting extreme learning machine model. Te
adjusted ELM model is used to evaluate prediction efciency. Te suggested TVF•EMD•ELM model is assessed and verifed in
various Algerian locations with varying climate conditions. In all examined regions, the TVF•EMD•ELM model generates less
than 4% error in terms of normalized root mean square error (nRMSE).
1. Introduction
Te vision and goal of countries around the world have been
to create a sustainable and environmentally friendly econ•
omy by developing plans for a promising future by investing
in green and renewable energies, notably solar energy.
Te future installation of PV capacity is expected to reach
4,815GW by 2040, according to the IEA 2019 Sustainable
Development Scenario [1]. In this regard, Algeria, like other
countries in the world, has begun investing in the feld of
photovoltaic energy in order to diversify energy sources and
not rely entirely on fossil energy within a time frame set by the
Algerian government to reach 22,000 megawatts of electricity
production from renewable sources, which is 2011–2030 [2].
To achieve this goal, the task of installing photovoltaic stations
was entrusted to the national company Sonelgaz, which has
experience in the feld of renewable energies, as it installed 23
photovoltaic stations connected to the network and wind
Hindawi
International Transactions on Electrical Energy Systems
Volume 2023, Article ID 6413716, 14 pages
https://doi.org/10.1155/2023/6413716