Patterns of revolution MATTHEW SOBERG SHUGART School of Social Sciences, University of California, Irvine In a critical review of the literature on revolution, Jack Goldstone iden- tified three generations of studiesJ The first generation, including works by Brinton and Edwards,2 was primarily descriptive, identifying preconditions and stages in the process of revolution, but lacking a solid theoretical basis. The second generation theorized about the determinants of revolutionary activity, focusing on the rebels' inten- tional actions, whether psychological in origin (e.g., Gurr, Davies, John- son 3) or rational but violent extensions of ordinary political conflict (e.g., Tilly4). The third generation, including Skocpol's book, 5 has been more sensitive to historical and social-structural context and thus able to account for the diversity of outcomes. While classified by Goldstone as second generation, the work of Huntington 6 and, more recently, Dix 7 on patterns of revolution is not, if modified as suggested below, inconsistent with the thrust of the third generation. Huntington suggested a two-fold typology of revolutions based upon the nature of the pre-revolutionary regime. By emphasizing old regime structures, Huntington anticipates the third generation, but omits detailed consideration of social conditions and historical con- texts. Although Dix considers the social milieux of various revolutions, his typology does not apply beyond the cases for which it is developed. My goal is to identify patterns of revolution besides those Huntington and Dix have discussed and to suggest which factors determine the pat- tern a revolution takes in a given society. A given pattern of revolution refers to a given configuration of factors. A typology does not in itself constitute understanding, but may serve to highlight important configu- rations of factors (or variables). Making such classifications is a valua- ble step toward understanding. One such factor is the relative urbanization of the society. Many third Theory and Society 18: 249-271, 1989. 9 1989 KluwerAcademic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.