Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Transportation Research Part D journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/trd Carbon offsetting and reduction scheme with sustainable aviation fuel options: Fleet-level carbon emissions impacts for U.S. airlines Hsun Chao a , Datu Buyung Agusdinata b, ⁎ , Daniel DeLaurentis a , Ellen B. Stechel c a School of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Purdue University, 701 W. Stadium Ave., West Lafayette 47907, IN, United States b School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, 800 Cady Mall, Tempe, AZ 85287, United States c School of Molecular Science, Arizona State University, 551 E University Dr, Tempe, AZ 85281, United States ARTICLE INFO Keywords: Aviation emissions policy U.S. airlines operations Sustainable aviation fuels Greenhouse gas emissions ABSTRACT To reduce aviation carbon emissions, the International Civil Aviation Organization initiated the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), which will take effect in 2021. In response, airlines have taken measures through various means, including the use of sustainable fuels. This article investigates the potential effects of a CORSIA-type policy when implemented in the United States. The study uses a combined model of airlines operations and multi-feedstock sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) to represent decisions of several actors, such as farmers, bio-refineries, airlines, and policymakers. The research employed a life-cycle assessment and Monte-Carlo simulation to evaluate two policy scenarios on the amount of SAF consumption and the resulting emissions. Implementing a CORSIA-type policy could stimulate the demand and production of SAFs, while also reducing air travel growth by increasing airfare. As a result of this combined effect and improved aircraft technology, there is a 3.5% chance that the U.S. airlines industry can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 37.5–50% by the year 2050, compared to the 2005 emission levels. Despite a projected increase in air travel in 2050 by a factor of 2.75 (the median value), the emissions in 2050 are expected to rise to only 120% (the median value) of the 2005 level. The price of petroleum-based aviation fuels followed by the growth rate of the carbon price are the two most important factors to determine whether the CORSIA-type policy would achieve the emission reduction target. 1. Introduction The aviation industry has been at the forefront of efforts to reduce carbon emissions. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) will initiate the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) after 2021 to prevent carbon emissions from international aviation from exceeding the 2020 emissions level. The International Air Transport Association (IATA), a trade association of the world's airlines that represents 82% of total air traffic, has set the ambitious target of reducing net aviation carbon emissions to 50% of the 2005 emission level by 2050 (IATA, 2019). The U.S. aviation industry is the largest in the world in terms of traffic volumes and aircraft movements (ICAO, 2016a,b). Hence, it is critical to whether the global aviation industry can achieve its greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target. Domestically, U.S. aviation represented 9% of the total 2017 U.S. transportation GHG emissions, equal to approximately 2.6% of the total national GHG https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2019.08.015 ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: chaoh@purdue.edu (H. Chao), bagusdin@asu.edu (D.B. Agusdinata), ddelaure@purdue.edu (D. DeLaurentis), Ellen.Stechel@asu.edu (E.B. Stechel). Transportation Research Part D 75 (2019) 42–56 Available online 26 August 2019 1361-9209/ © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. T