Machine Learning Algorithms
with Hydro-Meteorological Data
for Monthly Streamflow Forecasting
of Kurau River, Malaysia
Muhammad Nasir Mohd Adib and Sobri Harun
Abstract Monthly streamflow forecasting is crucial in water resources management
to assess the possible future streamflow patterns. It becomes vital where streamflow
of Kurau River is the primary water source to irrigate the large-scale rice scheme
of Kerian, Perak, coupled with future climate change uncertainty. In this context,
machine learning algorithms have received outstanding attention due to their high
accuracy in forecasting through high-speed input–output data processing of self-
learning from physical processes. In this study, two machine learning algorithms,
support vector regression (SVR) and random forest (RF), were considered to fore-
cast the streamflow of Kurau River in Malaysia using gauged hydro-meteorological
dataset for the period from 1976 to 2005. The predictions of monthly streamflows
were based on hydro-meteorological data such as rainfall, minimum and maximum
temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. A comparative study is executed to
evaluate the efficiency of SVR and RF in performing the streamflow predictions of
Kurau River. The results show that RF outperformed the SVR in both the training and
testing phases. The results have proven that machine learning algorithms, especially
the RF model, can be implemented for forecasting streamflow by using only hydro-
meteorological data with high accuracy, which will improve future water resources
management.
Keywords machine learning · support vector regression · random forest ·
forecasting · streamflow
M. N. M. Adib (B )
Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia
e-mail: muhammadadib.mn@graduate.utm.my
Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra
Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia
S. Harun
Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia,
81310 Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia
e-mail: sobriharun@utm.my
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023
I. K. Othman et al. (eds.), Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Water
Resources (ICWR) – Volume 2, Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering 365,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-3577-2_3
29