*Corresponding author. Tel: +86 15072425924
E-mail addresses: shafikhuram@yahoo.com (K. Shafi)
© 2015 Growing Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi: 10.5267/j.msl.2014.12.007
Management Science Letters 5 (2015) 59–64
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Management Science Letters
homepage: www.GrowingScience.com/msl
Exchange rate volatility and oil prices shocks and its impact on economic sustainability
Khuram Shafi
a,b*
, Liu Hua
c
and Zahra Idrees
a
a
PhD Scholar, School of Management, Hua Zhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
b
Assistant professor, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Pakistan
c
Professor, School of Management, HuaZhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
C H R O N I C L E A B S T R A C T
Article history:
Received September 18, 2014
Accepted 10 December 2014
Available online
December 15 2014
Impact of exchange rate volatility has received a great attention from the last century, its
importance is certain in all sectors of the economy and it affects welfare as well as social life
of the economy. Exchange rate between two currencies tells the value of one currency in terms
of others one. Depreciation/Appreciation of exchange rate affects economic growth in terms of
trade and shifts income to/from exporting countries from/to importing countries. The factors
affecting exchange rate are inflation, interest rate, foreign direct investment, government
consumption expenditure and balance of trade. This research study examines the impact of oil
prices and exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Germany based on 40-year annual
data. Cointegration technique is applied to check the impact of macroeconomic variables on
exchange rate in the long run and short run. It is estimated that imports, exports, inflation,
interest rate, government consumption expenditure and foreign direct investment had
significant impacts on real effective exchange rate in the long run and short run. Sin addition,
Engle Granger results indicate that relationship was significant for the long run and its error
correction adjustment mechanism (ECM) in short a run is significant and correctly signed for
Germany.
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Exchange rate volatility
Gross domestic product
Co integration
1. Introduction
Gross domestic product is one of the important barometers to measure the economic growth. Exchange
rate volatility and fluctuation in oil prices adversely influence on economic growth. This problem is
faced by both developing and developed countries. The various factors affecting exchange rate are
inflation, interest rate, exports, imports, foreign debt, industrial growth and foreign direct investment.
Exchange rate and oil prices have a significant impact on the growth of the economy. So, the research
problem is to find out the macroeconomic variables like imports, exports, inflation, interest rate,
government consumption expenditure and foreign direct investment have a significant impact on
exchange rate. Exchange rate volatility and oil prices fluctuations have significant long run
relationships with economic growth. The aim of this study is to check the long run as well as short run