CORRECTED PROOF Biological Conservation xxx (xxxx) 109708 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Biological Conservation journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/biocon Identifying potential gray wolf habitat and connectivity in the eastern USA M. van den Bosch a , ⁎ , D.E. Beyer Jr a , J.D. Erb b , M.G. Gantchoff c , K.F. Kellner a , D.M. MacFarland d , D.C. Norton e , B.R. Patterson f , J.L. Price Tack d , B.J. Roell e , J.L. Belant a a Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA b Forest Wildlife Populations and Research Group, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Grand Rapids, MN 55744, USA c Department of Biology, University of Dayton, Dayton, OH 45469, USA d Office of Applied Science, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, Rhinelander, WI 54501, USA e Wildlife Division, Michigan Department of Natural Resources, Marquette, MI 49855, USA f Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Wildlife Research and Development Section, Trent University, DNA Building, 2140 East Bank Drive, Peterborough, ON K9J 7B8, Canada ARTICLE INFO Keywords: Carnivore Gray wolf Distribution Recolonization Connectivity Corridor ABSTRACT Following federal protection in 1974, gray wolves (Canis lupus) partially recolonized former range in the western Great Lakes region, USA, yet remain absent from most of the eastern USA. Understanding potential for further re- colonization requires quantifying remaining wolf habitat and habitat connectivity. We used recent snow tracking data from the western Great Lakes region to create an ensemble distribution model to estimate areas of habitat large enough to support gray wolf populations in the eastern USA. We then modeled cost-weighted distances be- tween these areas and circuit connectivity to identify potential linkages. Our final distribution model had good performance (Receiver Operator Characteristic = 0.87) and suggests wolves selected against areas with greater human population densities and proportions of agricultural land. Gray wolves currently occupy about 4 % of their historical range in the eastern USA, which represents 12 % of the area estimated to remain suitable. We esti- mated 35 % of former range is currently suitable for wolves, and 18 % of these suitable areas are protected, mostly under state and federal jurisdictions. We identified five unoccupied areas where wolves could establish vi- able populations ranging from 18,110 to 725,488 km 2 . Connectivity between these areas and current wolf range is limited primarily by the Great Lakes and extensive agriculture in the Midwest USA. Most core habitat areas and priority linkages cross state or country borders, highlighting the importance of interjurisdictional cooperation. Our estimates of remaining suitable range and the potential for recolonization provide a baseline for the develop- ment of policies on gray wolf conservation in the eastern USA. 1. Introduction Worldwide, geographic ranges of large carnivores have contracted markedly since the 1700s due to anthropogenic causes (Ripple et al., 2014; Wolf and Ripple, 2017), primarily persecution (Musiani and Paquet, 2004) and habitat and connectivity loss (Crooks et al., 2011), which are linked to increases in human populations and land use change (Woodroffe, 2000). Range contractions of over 20 % have oc- curred for 80 % of large carnivore species, particularly in regions with high livestock densities (Wolf and Ripple, 2017). Human encroachment on large carnivore habitat also increases potential for conflict with hu- mans (Boudreau et al., 2022), which can result in direct carnivore mor- tality and reduce public support for their conservation (Treves and Karanth, 2003; Treves and Bruskotter, 2014). A better understanding of ecological top-down effects has increased recognition of the importance of large carnivores (Ripple et al., 2014). Together with improvements in public perceptions (Chapron et al., 2014; Gompper et al., 2015), policymaking has shifted and coexistence has become a more prevalent management objective (Linnell et al., 2001). Improved coexistence with large carnivores has contributed to partial reoccupation of former range in the United States (Gompper et al., 2015) and Europe (Chapron et al., 2014), though range contractions continue for many species, particularly in Africa and Asia (Wolf and Ripple, 2017). Recolonization of former range by large carnivores de- pends in part on habitat connectivity (Hemmingmoore et al., 2020). However, connectivity can be reduced by habitat fragmentation (Crooks et al., 2017), to which these species are especially vulnerable due to their low densities and large territories (Crooks et al., 2011). ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail address: merijnvdb@gmail.com (M. van den Bosch). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2022.109708 Received 27 April 2022; Received in revised form 8 August 2022; Accepted 17 August 2022 0006-3207/© 20XX Note: Low-resolution images were used to create this PDF. The original images will be used in the final composition.