Open Access Maced J Med Sci. 2022 Nov 01; 10(F):665-674. 665 Scientifc Foundation SPIROSKI, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia Open Access Macedonian Journal of Medical Sciences. 2022 Nov 01; 10(F):665-674. https://doi.org/10.3889/oamjms.2022.10141 eISSN: 1857-9655 Category: F - Review Articles Section: Systematic Review Article Projecting Malaria Incidence Based on Climate Change Modeling Approach: A Systematic Review Mazni Baharom 1 , Sharifah Safnas Syed Sofan 1 , Chua Su Peng 1 , Mohd Hafz Baharudin 1 , Ummi Mirza 1 , Mohd Faizal Madrim 2 * , Mohammad Safree Jefree 2 , Syed Sharizman Syed Abdul Rahim 2 , Mohd Rohaizat Hassan 1 1 Department of Community Health, Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bandar Tun Razak, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia; 2 Department of Public Health Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia Abstract BACKGROUND: Climate change will afect the transmission of malaria by shifting the geographical space of the vector. AIM: The review aims to examine the climate change modeling approach and climatic variables used for malaria projection. METHODS: Articles were systematically searched from four databases, Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, and SAGE. The PICO concept was used for formulation search and PRISMA approach to identify the fnal articles. RESULTS: A total of 27 articles were retrieved and reviewed. There were six climate factors identifed in this review: Temperature, rainfall/precipitation, humidity, wind, solar radiation, and climate change scenarios. Modeling approaches used to project future malarial trend includes mathematical and computational approach. CONCLUSION: This review provides robust evidence of an association between the impact of climate change and malaria incidence. Prediction on seasonal patterns would be useful for malaria surveillance in public health prevention and mitigation strategies. Edited by: Eli Djulejic Citation: Baharom M, Sofan SSS, Peng CS, Baharudin MH, Mirza U, Madrim MF, Jefree MS, Rahim SSSA, Hassan MR. Projecting Malaria Incidence Based on Climate Change Modelling Approach: A Systematic Review. Open Access Maced J Med Sci. 2022 Nov 01; 10(F):665-674. https://doi.org/10.3889/oamjms.2022.10141 Keywords: Projection; Malaria incidence; Climate change; Modelling; Public health *Correspondence: Mohd Faizal Madrim, Department of Public Health Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia. E-mail: faizal.madrim@ums.edu.my Received: 08-Jun-2022 Revised: 12-Oct-2022 Accepted: 22-Oct-2022 Copyright: © 2022 Mazni Baharom, Sharifah Safnas Syed Sofan, Chua Su Peng, Mohd Hafz Baharudin, Ummi Mirza,, Mohd Faizal Madrim, Mohammad Safree Jefree, Syed Sharizman Syed Abdul Rahim, Mohd Rohaizat Hassan Funding: This research did not receive any fnancial support Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist Open Access: This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution- NonCommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC 4.0) Introduction Malaria is a life-threatening disease caused by Plasmodium parasites. It is transmitted to people through the bites of infected female Anopheles mosquitoes, called “malaria vectors.” There are fve parasite species that cause malaria in humans, and two of these species – Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax – pose the largest threat. Malaria is a public health burden; however, it is preventable and curable. In 2019, there were an estimated 229 million cases of malaria globally [1]. The estimated number of malaria mortality was 409,000 in 2019. Children aged under 5 years are the most vulnerable group afected by malaria. In 2019, they accounted for 67% (274,000) of all malaria deaths internationally. The World Health Organization (WHO) African Region (AFR) carries a disproportionately high share of the global malaria burden. In 2019 alone, the region was home to 94% of malaria cases and mortality. In 2018, P. falciparum accounted for 99.7% of estimated malaria cases in the WHO AFR, 50% of cases in the WHO South-east Asia Region, 71% of cases in the Eastern Mediterranean and 65% Western Pacifc. P. vivax is the most prevalent parasite in the WHO Region of America, representing 75% of all malaria cases [1]. Total funding for malaria control and elimination reached an estimated US$ 3 billion in 2019. Subsidies from governments of endemic nations amounted to US$ 900 million, representing 31% of total aid. Climate plays a crucial role in malaria transmission, particularly in tropical countries. Factors such as land use, population growth, urbanization, migration, and high economic development also contribute to malaria transmission [2]. Climate change will directly afect the information of vector-borne disease by shifting the vector’s geographical space, increasing reproduction and biting rate, and shortening the pathogen’s incubation period [3]. Other factors such as temperature, rainfall, and humidity may infuence the population of Anopheles and malaria incidence [4], [5]. Warmer temperatures can reduce the sporogonic cycle duration; hence, mosquitoes will be more infective and spread widely [6]. Temperature suitable for mosquitoes lifespan ranges from 16°C to 36°C Since 2002