Vol.:(0123456789) 1 3 Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy (2019) 21:1013–1037 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-019-01689-x ORIGINAL PAPER Prediction of the resource‑efcient potential of Turkish manufacturing industry: a country‑based study Şeyma Karahan Özbilen 1  · Kumru Rende 2  · Yılmaz Kılıçaslan 3  · Zeynep Karal Önder 3  · Gökhan Önder 4  · Ünal Töngür 5  · Ceren Tosun 1  · Özlem Durmuş 6  · Nevda Atalay 6  · Belçim Aytekin Keskin 6  · Nilay Dönmez 6  · Gonca Aras 6 Received: 28 September 2018 / Accepted: 18 March 2019 / Published online: 27 March 2019 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019 Abstract As an emerging country, there is a rapid industrial development and associated excessive resource consumption in Turkey. In this case, the dissemination of cleaner production activities based on the principle of minimum resource consumption and waste generation should be regarded as the priority target to ensure efcient use of the resources, enhance the manufacturing industry’s competitiveness, and reduce environmental impacts. In this paper, the potential of resource efciency in Turkish manufacturing industry was predicted. Input saving potential in each industry and aggregate manufacturing was predicted under three diferent scenarios: business-as-usual, realistic, and ideal. While we used industry saving rate obtained from the feld surveys in business-as-usual scenario, we used (in)efciency scores obtained from Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) conducted for the entire manufacturing industry as well as for the fve selected sectors and sub-sectors by using the frm- level panel data Turkish manufacturing from 2008 to 2012 together with the sectoral saving rates. The potential of resource efciency is estimated for fve sectors: (10) Manufacture of food products, (13) Manufacture of textiles, (20) Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, (23) Manufacture of other nonmetallic mineral products, and (24) Manufacture of basic metals. Then, it is generalized to whole Turkish manufacturing industry. The calculations were performed in both monetary and quantitative terms for energy and water inputs but only in monetary terms for raw material inputs. It is estimated that the Turkish manufacturing industry’s monetary-saving potential ranges from $8.8 billion/year to $14.5 billion/year based on the three scenarios specifed for all inputs. In addition, according to the realistic scenario, 44.5% of total monetary-saving potential stems from SME savings (47.3% raw material, 41.8% energy, and 9.8% water). Besides, TR10 (Istanbul) and TR42 (Kocaeli, Sakarya, Düzce, Bolu, Yalova) regions have highest raw material and energy-saving potential, respectively. Accord- ing to the realistic scenario, their share of the total saving value stood at 27% and 14%, respectively. Also, TR63 (Hatay, Kahramanmaraş, Osmaniye) and TR22 (Balıkesir, Çanakkale) regions have the highest water-saving potentials. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the frst attempt in examining resource efciency in the Turkish manufacturing industry in the broadest scope. Moreover, the methodology used in this work is said to be frst and unique. We believe this methodology will open new avenues to the new researches both in Turkey and other countries. * Şeyma Karahan Özbilen seyma.karahan@tubitak.gov.tr 1 TUBITAK Marmara Research Center, Environment and Cleaner Production Institute, Kocaeli, Turkey 2 Faculty of Engineering, Gebze Technical University, Kocaeli, Turkey 3 Faculty of Economics, Anadolu University, Eskişehir, Turkey 4 Faculty of Business Administration, Anadolu University, Eskişehir, Turkey 5 Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey 6 Directorate General for Productivity, Ministry of Science, Industry and Technology, Ankara, Turkey