Transmission of shocks between
bond and oil markets
Amir Saadaoui, Kais Saidi and Mohamed Kriaa
Faculty of Economics and Management of Sfax, University of Sfax,
Sfax, Tunisia
Abstract
Purpose – This paper aims at looking into the transmission of shocks between bond and oil markets using a
bivariate GARCH (BEKK and DCC) model. As lots of financial assets have been exchanged due to these index
returns, it is essential for financial market participants to figure out the mechanism of volatility transmission
through time and via these series for the purpose of taking optimal decisions of portfolio allocation. The
outcomes drawn reveal an important volatility transmission between sovereign bond and oil indices, with great
sensitivity during and after the subprime crisis period.
Design/methodology/approach – In this context, we propose our hypotheses. Indeed, our study aims to
see whether the financial crisis has been responsible for the sharp drop in oil prices since October 2008. To
this end, we suggest, in this paper, the empirical study of the shock transmission between the bond and oil
markets, using BEK-GARCH and DCC models. To our knowledge, this is the first document using the
BEKK-GARCH and the DCC models in studying the shock transmission between a sovereign bond and oil
indices.
Findings – We have noticed that in the event of a disruption in the bond market, oil prices respond to these
shocks in the short term. It has also been emphasized, however, that this relationship has exacerbated if the
period has extended. This makes us conclude that the financial market situation affects the oil price only
throughout the crisis period; and that this situation is causally significant only in the event of a severe crisis,
such as those of subprime and sovereign debt.
Originality/value – The global financial system has been going through an acute crisis since mid-2007. This
crisis, initially occurred only in the US real estate market, progressively affects the global financial system, and
is now becoming a general economic crisis. The objective of this work is to analyze the effects of the current
financial market disturbance on oil prices based on econometric models in order to promote the proper
functioning of this study.
Keywords Volatility, Bond returns, Oil prices, Bond market, Bivariate GARCH
Paper type Research paper
1. Introduction
The dynamic relationship and transmission in oil markets are of much interest to the financial
community with the growing trend toward worldwide financial globalization. The
relationship in daily activity in financial markets gives general economic news. In fact, the
world oil price has been one of the most frequently cited reasons for fluctuations in securities
prices. Rising oil prices have been criticized for falling stock prices, the weakness of the dollar
exchange rate, and in a certain way, the fluctuations in government bond returns. Compared
to other periods of rising oil prices, the response of the bond market has been limited.
Expanding this issue in the context of oil and bond markets is also substantial as empirical
results provide insight into the creation of accurate asset pricing models and accurate
forecasts of the volatility of the two markets.
Although several studies in the literature have investigated the interactions between oil
prices and the bond market Moses et al. (2017); Park and Ratti (2008); Filis et al. (2011); Basher
et al. (2012) very few researchers have been interested in the issue of return and volatility
Shock
transmissions
in bond and oil
markets
JEL Classification — F3, G1
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Received 8 November 2019
Revised 12 March 2020
16 April 2020
Accepted 17 April 2020
Managerial Finance
© Emerald Publishing Limited
0307-4358
DOI 10.1108/MF-11-2019-0554