1 An International Political Economy Theory of Democratic Transition Tyson Roberts November 2006 Note to WGAPE: I look forward to your feedback. This is my first attempt at a formal model, so I welcome any technical suggestions on that. I would also like to know your thoughts on how well the model relates to reality. I welcome suggestions on how to make it more realistic without making it too much more complicated (suggestions to make it both more realistic and simpler would be particularly welcome). Finally, assuming the model seems to have some validity, I’m thinking of trying to test it empirically, and would welcome suggestions on that. I’m thinking to maybe do a survival model, and interact “era” (pretty much 70s, 80s, and 1990+, although not exactly) with political and economic strategy.