Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Transportation Research Part C journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/trc Predicting the adoption of connected autonomous vehicles: A new approach based on the theory of diffusion of innovations Ahmadreza Talebian a, ⁎ , Sabyasachee Mishra b a Department of Transportation Engineering, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan 84156-83111, Iran b Department of Civil Engineering, University of Memphis, 112D Engineering Science Building, Memphis, TN 38152, United States ARTICLE INFO Keywords: Connected autonomous vehicles Social network Diffusion of innovations Agent-based modeling Simulation Adoption ABSTRACT On the grounds that individuals heavily rely on the information that they receive from their peers when evaluating adoption of a radical innovation, this paper proposes a new approach to forecast long-term adoption of connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs). The concept of resistance is em- ployed to explain why individuals typically tend to defer the adoption of an innovation. We assume that there exists a social network among individuals through which they communicate based on certain frequencies. In addition, individuals can be subject to media advertisement based on certain frequencies. An individual’s perceptions are dynamic and change over time as the individual is exposed to advertisement and communicates with satisfied and dissatisfied adopters. We also explicitly allow willingness-to-pay (WTP) to change as a result of peer-to-peer communication. An individual decides to adopt when (i) there is a need for a new vehicles; (ii) his/her WTP is greater than CAV price; and (iii) his/her overall impression about CAVs reaches a cutoff value. Applicability of the proposed approach is shown using a survey of employees of the University of Memphis. Our results show that the automobile fleet will be near homogenous in about 2050 only if CAV prices decrease at an annual rate of 15% or 20%. We find that a 6-month pre-introduction marketing campaign may have no significant impact on adoption trend. Marketing is shown to ignite CAV diffusion but its effect is capped. CAV market share will be close to 100% only if all adopters are satisfied with their purchases; therefore, the probability that an individual becomes a satisfied adopter plays an important role in the trend of adoption. The effect of the latter probability is more pronounced as time goes by and is also more pro- minent when CAV price reduces at greater rates. Some caveats may be inserted when considering the study results as the findings are subject to sample bias and data limitations. 1. Introduction Connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs) are about to become a reality, and they are arriving much earlier than many would think. By incorporating features such as parking assist, adaptive cruise control, and collision avoidance systems, most automobile manu- facturers have already incorporated some degrees of automation into the existing cars. Mercedes-Benz, Google, Tesla, and others have already developed and tested prototypes of the first fully autonomous vehicles. By aggressive testing of autonomous peer-to-peer ridesharing services, transportation network companies (TNCs), such as Uber and Lyft, are also pushing the introduction of auto- mation. Overall, such policies promise a transition to a more spread use of ride sharing services. Thanks to these advancements, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2018.06.005 Received 4 June 2018; Received in revised form 11 June 2018; Accepted 14 June 2018 ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail address: talebian@cc.iut.ac.ir (A. Talebian). Transportation Research Part C 95 (2018) 363–380 0968-090X/ © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. T