Citation: Kayaku¸ s, M.; Terzio˘ glu, M.; Erdo ˘ gan, D.; Zetter, S.A.; Kabas, O.; Moiceanu, G. European Union 2030 Carbon Emission Target: The Case of Turkey. Sustainability 2023, 15, 13025. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151713025 Received: 27 July 2023 Revised: 22 August 2023 Accepted: 24 August 2023 Published: 29 August 2023 Copyright: © 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/). sustainability Article European Union 2030 Carbon Emission Target: The Case of Turkey Mehmet Kayaku¸ s 1 , Mustafa Terzio˘ glu 2 , Dil¸ sad Erdo ˘ gan 3 , Selin Aygen Zetter 4 , Onder Kabas 5, * and Georgiana Moiceanu 6, * 1 Department of Management Information Systems, Faculty of Manavgat Social Sciences and Humanities, Akdeniz University, 07070 Antalya, Türkiye; mehmetkayakus@akdeniz.edu.tr 2 Accounting and Tax Department, Korkuteli Vocational School, Akdeniz University, 07070 Antalya, Türkiye; mterzioglu@akdeniz.edu.tr 3 Department of Finance, Banking and Insurance, Korkuteli Vocational School, Akdeniz University, 07070 Antalya, Türkiye; dilsaderdogan@akdeniz.edu.tr 4 Department of Office Services and Secretariat, Social Sciences Vocational School, Akdeniz University, 07070 Antalya, Türkiye 5 Department of Machine, Technical Science Vocational School, Akdeniz University, 07070 Antalya, Türkiye 6 Department of Entrepreneurship and Management, Faculty of Entrepreneurship, Business Engineering and Management, National University of Science and Technology POLITEHNICA Bucharest, 060042 Bucharest, Romania * Correspondence: okabas@akdeniz.edu.tr (O.K.); georgiana.moiceanu@upb.ro (G.M.); Tel.: +40-745201365 (G.M.) Abstract: Climate awareness caused by the threat of global warming is the number one agenda item for developed and developing economies. Plans developed in this context, environmentally friendly trends in economic activities, and countries’ efforts to adapt to sustainable development have enabled new road maps. The most important of these efforts is the Paris Climate Agreement signed in 2015 and the Green Deal implemented by the European Union (EU) within the framework of this agreement. In this study, the carbon emissions of Turkey, which has important trade relations with the EU, were estimated using machine learning techniques, and a prediction was made for 2030 based on the results obtained. These results were evaluated in line with the targets of the Green Deal. The R 2 of support vector regression (SVR), which was applied in the model as one of the machine learning techniques, was found to be 98.4%, and it was found to have the highest predictive power. This technique was followed by multiple linear regression (MLR) with a 97.6% success rate and artificial neural networks (ANN) with a 95.8% success rate, respectively. According to the estimates achieved with the most successful model, SVR, Turkey’s carbon emissions are expected to be 723.97 million metric tons (mt) of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in 2030, the target year set by the EU. This level is 42% higher than the target that needs to be achieved given the data existing in 2019. According to these results, Turkey will not be able to reach the targets set by the EU unless it increases its coal-based energy consumption and provides incentives for renewable energy sources. Keywords: carbon dioxide emission; environment; Turkey; machine learning 1. Introduction The increasing world population given its limited resources, as well as the increase in diversity and per capita consumption, are rapidly changing the natural structure of the planet. It is the atmosphere that is most affected by this change. The negative effects caused by greenhouse gas emissions are shown to be the most important cause of global climate change. Industrialization and urbanization processes increase greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, fossil fuels, waste, insufficient use of renewable energy, and uncontrolled consumption of natural resources are other factors that trigger the increase in emissions. Carbon dioxide is the most important driving factor of greenhouse gases, which are composed of compounds with heat retention in the Sustainability 2023, 15, 13025. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151713025 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability