Modelling the current and future dry-season distribution of the edible stinkbug Encosternum delegorguei in sub- Saharan Africa C.M. Dzerefos 1 *, B.F.N. Erasmus 2 , E.T.F. Witkowski 1 & D. Guo 3 1 Restoration and Conservation Biology Research Group, School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, PO Wits 2050, Johannesburg, South Africa, 2 Centre for African Ecology, School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, PO Wits 2050, Johannesburg, South Africa, and 3 Climate Change and Bio-adaptation Division, South African National Biodiversity Institute, Kirstenbosch Research Centre, Private Bag X7, Claremont 7735, Cape Town, South Africa Accepted: 6 March 2015 Key words: bioclimatic envelope, insect conservation, MAXENT, mini-livestock, stinkbugs, Hemiptera, Tessaratomidae Abstract Rural communities in South Africa, Malawi, and Zimbabwe annually harvest from winter aggrega- tions of the edible stinkbug Encosternum (= Haplosterna) delegorguei Spinola (Hemiptera: Tessara- tomidae). Using a regional maximum entropy modelling method (MAXENT) for winter field records of E. delegorguei, current and future climate scenarios were identified. Winter precipitation and to a lesser degree summer precipitation and winter temperature were the climatic variables found to limit the regional distribution of E. delegorguei. The receiver operating characteristic analysis (ROC) yielded an AUC (area under the curve) value of 0.995, indicating a reliable model, although interpretations must consider the influence of elevation for this insect. A testable hypothesis regard- ing future distribution of E. delegorguei in the face of climate change has been formulated for its win- ter range. Predator-prey relationships and food source also influence the occurrence of E. delegorguei and may override the influence of climate. The current distribution modelled identifies potential new sites in areas of similar climate which may be unknown to harvesters. Areas for mini-livestock pilot studies provide opportunities for extending commercial potential and ensuring a sustainable, valuable food source during periods of food scarcity. Introduction Despite Africa’s small carbon footprint relative to the rest of the world, the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change revealed that Africa is warming faster than the glo- bal average (IPCC, 2007). Food security and rural liveli- hoods in sub-Saharan Africa are threatened by increased frequency of floods, stronger winds (Clover, 2003), and drought (Brown et al., 2011) attributed to climate change. Biodiversity will also be affected (DEA, 2013) but details at species level are largely undetermined. A moderate increase in CO 2 emissions is predicted to alter the distribu- tion of 97% of 179 terrestrial animal species in South Africa (Erasmus et al., 2002). Species-based studies were flagged in a South African report on the progression and impact of climate change, as a means of monitoring predictions and mitigating impacts (DEA, 2013). Insects are suitable climate change indica- tors, as their life cycles are completed in a short period of time. One extreme example is the hemipteran Moritziella castaneivora Miyazaki, which during a period of abundant food was able to complete one generation per week and eight generations in a year (Wang et al., 2010). In particu- lar, strong fliers have the ability to disperse widely and pos- sibly track climatic changes by shifting their range. Indeed, the Southern green stinkbug, Nezara viridula L., was shown to have extended its distribution northwards in Japan by 85 km in 45 years (Tougou et al., 2009). The Monarch butterfly Danaus plexippus L. in the western hemisphere is also expected to have a northward shift in *Correspondence: C.M. Dzerefos, Restoration and Conservation Biology Research Group, School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, PO Wits 2050, Johannes- burg, South Africa. E-mail: cathy@dzerefos.com © 2015 The Netherlands Entomological Society Entomologia Experimentalis et Applicata 156: 1–13, 2015 1 DOI: 10.1111/eea.12309