Citation: Bohlmann, H.R.; Bohlmann, J.A.; Chitiga-Mabugu, M.; Inglesi-Lotz, R. Just Energy Transition of South Africa in a Post-COVID Era. Sustainability 2023, 15, 10854. https://doi.org/10.3390/ su151410854 Academic Editors: Carolyn Chisadza, Xin Sheng and Afees A. Salisu Received: 11 June 2023 Revised: 4 July 2023 Accepted: 7 July 2023 Published: 11 July 2023 Copyright: © 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/). sustainability Article Just Energy Transition of South Africa in a Post-COVID Era Heinrich R. Bohlmann 1 , Jessika A. Bohlmann 2 , Margaret Chitiga-Mabugu 2 and Roula Inglesi-Lotz 1, * 1 Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa; heinrich.bohlmann@up.ac.za 2 Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, Main Campus, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa; jessika.bohlmann@up.ac.za (J.A.B.); margaret.chitiga@up.ac.za (M.C.-M.) * Correspondence: roula.inglesi-lotz@up.ac.za Abstract: The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have sparked global debate over how green economic recovery may and should be, and if the pandemic has accelerated the present energy transition while assuring a just transition for vulnerable populations such as unskilled workers and women. This study investigates the socioeconomic impact of South Africa’s planned green energy transition, with a focus on the Mpumalanga province—the country’s largest coal mining region with many coal-fired power plants. Using a regional-dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, the study analyses the economy-wide effects of different policy scenarios related to a changing electricity generation mix, investment financing costs, and international action against non-compliant industries, amongst others, with a specific focus on the vulnerable industries and population groups in Mpumalanga. Key results from the study highlights that (1) the structure of the Mpumalanga economy will be affected in the medium to long run regardless of the domestic transition path, (2) the Mpumalanga economy is indeed in danger of shrinking relative to the baseline, unless the Just Energy Transition (JET) is quickly and carefully managed, and (3) at a national level, at least, there is the strong possibility of a double dividend when greening the South African economy with overall economic growth and environmental outcomes expected to improve in the long run. Keywords: Just Energy Transition; Leave No One Behind; sustainability; greening; coal 1. Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic led to a global economic crisis of extensive magnitudes, which affected economies, societies, and health systems across the globe [1]. Given the unprecedented situation brought by COVID-19, the overall focus of governments and civil society was to get the disease under control and revive their economies [1]. During the lockdown periods, global economic activity was reduced. Consumers and suppliers substantially altered their profiles and trends, as demonstrated by the short-run halting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reduced energy usage. As waves of the pandemic continued to roll worldwide in 2020 and 2021, different stimulus packages and vaccine rollouts allowed most economic activity to return. The global energy demand reportedly rebounded by over 4.5% in 2021—above pre-pandemic levels. The COVID-19 epidemic has sparked a major global debate about the level of envi- ronmental sustainability that can be achieved throughout the economic recovery phase. This discussion also explores how much the epidemic has accelerated the transition to sustainable energy sources while simultaneously assuring an equitable transition for vul- nerable populations, particularly women and unskilled labourers. For South Africa, one of the significant challenges remains to substitute fossil fuel consumption, which represents over 90% of the energy sources of the country, especially in vital economic sectors such as mining, iron, and steel [2]. The dependence of the sector on energy and capital makes them adapt more slowly to change, and these sectors are also recognised as key employers in the country [3]. Another challenge facing middle- and low-income countries is that Sustainability 2023, 15, 10854. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151410854 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability