June 2009, Vol. 38 No. 6 541 Global Trends in Cardiology—Joseph Antonio D Molina and Heng Bee Hoon Review Article Global Trends in Cardiology and Cardiothoracic Surgery – An Opportunity or a Threat? Joseph Antonio D Molina, 1 MD, MSc (PH), Bee Hoon Heng, 1 MBBS, MSc(PH), FAMS 1 Health Services & Outcomes Research, National Healthcare Group, Singapore Address for Correspondence: Dr Joseph Antonio D Molina, Health Services and Outcomes Research, National Healthcare Group Headquarters, 6 Commonwealth Lane, #04-01/02 GMTI Building, Singapore 149547. Email: Joseph_Antonio_MOLINA@nhg.com.sg Abstract Coronary heart disease is currently the leading cause of death globally, and is expected to account for 14.2% of all deaths by 2030. The emergence of novel technologies from cardiothoracic surgery and interventional cardiology are welcome developments in the light of an overwhelming chronic disease burden. However, as these complementary yet often competing disciplines rely on expensive technologies, hastily prepared resource plans threaten to consume a substantial proportion of limited healthcare resources. By describing procedural and professional trends as well as current and emerging technologies, this review aims to provide useful knowledge to help managers make informed decisions for the planning of cardiovascular disease management. Since their inception, developments in both specialties have been very rapid. Owing to differences in patient characteristics, interventions and outcomes, results of studies comparing cardiothoracic surgery and interventional cardiology have been conflicting. Outcomes for both specialties continue to improve through the years. Despite the persistent demand for coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG) as a rescue procedure following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), there is a widening gap between the numbers of PCI and CABG. Procedural volumes seem to have affected career choices of physicians. Emerging technologies from both disciplines are eagerly awaited by the medical community. For long-term planning of both disciplines, conventional health technology assessment methods are of limited use due to their rapid developments. In the absence of established prediction tools, planners should tap alternative sources of evidence such as changes in disease epidemiology, procedural volumes, horizon scan reports as well as trends in disease outcomes. Ann Acad Med Singapore 2009;38:541-5 Key words: Cardiac surgery, Interventional cardiology, Planning Introduction Until the end of the first half of the 20 th century, the management of coronary heart disease (CHD) lay largely in the hands of general cardiologists. Subsequently, treatment of CHD was influenced by breakthroughs from two complementary yet often competing subspecialties. Coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) was the first definitive intervention introduced in the 1960s by cardiothoracic surgeons. More than a decade later, a group of physicians who were eventually called interventional cardiologists performed the first human coronary angioplasty. To this day, both technologies continue to evolve, at times with one discipline announcing the impending arrival of a breakthrough before the other could finish celebrating its most recent success. The value of rapid technological advances becomes clearer in light of the growing pandemic of cardiovascular diseases, and this free enterprise “competition” can only be beneficial to the patient. However, investing heavily in two divergent technologies intended for the same disease and the same subset of patients is an inefficient way of allocating finite resources. Infrastructure planning for catheter-based interventions and cardiothoracic surgery is much like trying to hit a constantly moving target. The challenge lies in arriving at a resource allocation plan that optimises both technologies that is cost-effective. This paper reviews the secular trends in procedural statistics for cardiothoracic surgery and interventional cardiology, and the current and emerging technologies envisioned to assume major roles in the future management