A System Dynamics Model of Land-use Change for Climate Change Adaptation: The Case of Uganda Isdore Paterson Guma 1 a , Agnes Semwanga Rwashana 1 and Benedict Oyo 2 1 Department of Computer Science, Gulu University, Gulu, Uganda 2 College of Computing and Information Science, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda Keywords: System Dynamics Model, Land-Use Change, Climate, Climate Change Adaptation. Abstract: System dynamics models in land use change are useful tools for understanding the cause and effect of land use changes, assessing the impacts of land use systems on the environment, and supports land use planning and policy dimensions. Several studies have used different methods to examine the drivers of land-use change in understanding the interactions of land-use change as a result of human activities. However, much less work has been undertaken to model the future of a suite of ecosystem services in a holistic way. These studies have been conducted with minimum emphasis on the systemic structures or feedback processes of land-use decisions. A system dynamics model will be used to model ecosystem services to understand complex interactions using dynamic synthesis methodology. Questionnaires and interviews will be used for data collection. The study will explore viable policies for optimal land use to mitigate the degree of future climate change and risks. Projections of future resource requirements and environmental stress are alarming as a result of poorly planned economic development. Unless significant measures are taken to incorporate environmental concerns, the situation is likely to worsen in the future. Modeling complex natural-human systems remains an important research area. 1 INTRODUCTION System Dynamics (SD) is a tool for understanding complex system interactions that deal with dynamical processes with feedback (Rasmussen et al., 2012). Besides, SD predicts the complex system changes under different "what-if" scenarios, making it a good tool and is widely used in different fields of natural science, social science, and engineering technology (Rasmussen et al., 2012). This is because the complexities of the systems are beyond the grasp of human mental models. Such a systems-oriented stance suggests a means of untangling the complexities of the biophysical and socio-economic systems. SD places special emphasis on explicit representation and simulation of non-linear feedback mechanisms when addressing complex problems (Siregar et al., 2018). It helps to identify leverage factors (population pressure, socio-economic pressure), predicts changes in the future such as climate variability, floods (Siregar et al., 2018), appreciate how systems change a https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8282-2993 over time, and a method for studying complex systems based on the theory of non-linearity, dynamics, and feedback control (Liu et al., 2017). Hence, SD is a valuable approach that allows exploration of how the land systems work, and more critically, to assess the drivers of environmental degradation and its contribution to climate change (Josephat, 2018). Land-use change (LUC) is a process of transforming the natural ecosystem by human activities, causing a significant impact on the environmental systems (Worku, 2020). LUCs are often nonlinear and might trigger feedback to the system, stress living conditions, and threaten people with vulnerability (Siregar et al., 2018). The land degradation and loss of biodiversity have underprivileged human communities of important ecosystem services (Businge et al., 2017). If this trend continues, the world will face a very serious challenge to meet the global goals on water and sanitation, food security, climate change action, affordable and clean energy. Guma, I., Rwashana, A. and Oyo, B. A System Dynamics Model of Land-use Change for Climate Change Adaptation: The Case of Uganda. DOI: 10.5220/0010342101910198 In Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications (SIMULTECH 2021), pages 191-198 ISBN: 978-989-758-528-9 Copyright c  2021 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda. All rights reserved 191