38 Int. J. Applied Management Science, Vol. 7, No. 1, 2015 Copyright © 2015 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd. Production planning forecasting method selection in a supply chain: a case study Fikri Dweiri, Sharfuddin Ahmed Khan and Vipul Jain* Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management Department, College of Engineering, University of Sharjah, P.O. Box 27272, Sharjah, UAE Fax: +971-65053963 Email: fdweiri@sharjah.ac.ae Email: skhan@sharjah.ac.ae Email: vjain@sharjah.ac.ae *Corresponding author Abstract: In modern supply chain, forecasting is critical for managers to ensure the availability of the proper amount of inventory to satisfy customers with minimum deviation. Without appropriate forecasting, it is very difficult to plan effectively and efficiently. After scanning the literature, it is to be noted that there is no recommendation of a specific method that is best for forecasting. This is also due to the availability of many alternative forecasting methods and criteria of preferences. Therefore, this paper proposes a ranking of forecasting methods for production planning in a supply chain. The proposed model is based on the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) since it has been proven useful in multi-criteria decision-making in many industrial and real life applications. It considers seven popular methods (decomposition, winter exponential, double exponential, single exponential, trend analysis, five months moving average and 12 months moving average) and three preference criteria (MAD, MSD and MAPE). The model is tested using a real case study. The sensitivity of the ranking was also tested and the ranges of criteria preferences are determined for robustness. Keywords: forecasting methods; production planning; supply chain management; analytical hierarchy process; AHP; sensitivity analysis. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Dweiri, F., Khan, S.A. and Jain, V. (2015) ‘Production planning forecasting method selection in a supply chain: a case study’, Int. J. Applied Management Science, Vol. 7, No. 1, pp.38–58. Biographical notes: Fikri Dweiri is Associate Professor and Vice Dean of College of Engineering at the University of Sharjah, UAE since 2013. He holds a PhD in Industrial Engineering from the University of Texas at Arlington. He served as the Dean of the School Technological Sciences at the German-Jordanian University and the Founding Chairman of the Industrial Engineering Department at Jordan University of Science and Technology. His research interest includes quality management, supply chain management, organisation performance excellence, multi-criteria decision making and fuzzy logic.