The authors thank Edmund Choong, Xiaolin Qian and Fan Yu for their research assistance. Support for this
project was provided by the Nanyang Technological University (Research Fund: RCC41/2004/NBS) and the
Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund Tier 1, RCC11/2005/NBS.
*Correspondence author, Nanyang Technological University, Nanyang Avenue, Block S3, B1B-63, Singapore
639798, Singapore. Tel: +65-67905753, e-mail: abslow@ntu.edu.sg
Received January 2008; Accepted March 2008
■ Charlie Charoenwong is an Associate Professor in the Division of Banking at the Nanyang
Technological University, Singapore.
■ Nattawut Jenwittayaroje is in the Faculty of Commerce and Accountancy at the
Chulalongkorn University, Thailand.
■ Buen Sin Low is an Associate Professor in the Division of Banking and Finance at the
Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.
The Journal of Futures Markets, Vol. 29, No. 3, 270–295 (2009)
© 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com).
DOI: 10.1002/fut.20351
WHO KNOWS MORE ABOUT
FUTURE CURRENCY V OLATILITY?
CHARLIE CHAROENWONG
NATTAWUT JENWITTAYAROJE
BUEN SIN LOW*
We use four currency pairs from October 1, 2001 to September 29, 2006 to com-
pare the predictive power of the implied volatility derived from currency option
prices that are traded on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange (PHLX), Chicago
Mercantile Exchange (CME), and over-the-counter market (OTC). Among the
competing implied volatility forecasts, OTC-implied volatility subsumes the infor-
mation content of PHLX- and CME-implied volatility. Consistent with extant
studies our result also shows that the implied volatility provides more information
about future volatility–regardless of whether it is from the OTC, PHLX, or CME
markets–than time series based volatility. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl
Fut Mark 29:270–295, 2009