A policy-making strategy to forecast outcomes of drug development in Indonesia Ria Christine Siagian Fakultas Kesehatan Masyarakat, Universitas Indonesia and Badan Pengawas Obat dan Makanan, Jakarta, Indonesia Anhari Achadi, Hasbullah Thabrany, Dumilah Ayuningtyas, Prastuti Soewondo, Sutanto Priyo Hastono and Purnawan Junadi Fakultas Kesehatan Masyarakat, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia Novilia Sjafri Bachtiar Bio Farma, Bandung, Indonesia, and Tepy Usia Badan Pengawas Obat dan Makanan, Jakarta, Indonesia Abstract Purpose – The pharmaceutical industry in Indonesia appears hesitant to make the transition from inventor to innovator and instead continues with the process of formulation and packaging. Evidence-based policy has been advocated for Indonesia and, in general, this is more likely to hold. This study aims to establish a model for a policy- making process that is strategically able to predict strategies that would encourage drug development in Indonesia. Design/methodology/approach – A quantitative approach with the survey method was designed to obtain appropriate data from a population of pharmaceutical industries in Indonesia and relevant government institutions to assess the relationship of various factors capable of triggering domestic drug development, including pharma capability, political feasibility and innovation incentives. The construct was validated using a set of techniques pertaining to the calculation of structural equation modeling. Findings – The model demonstrates how it matters when applied to the policy-making process. It proves that pharma capability, political feasibility, and innovation incentives correlated to pharma capability are major catalysts in the promotion of drug development. These are largely explained by market opportunity, pull factors, government power, and position. Although all of the elements were moderately to strongly related to the promotion of drug development, this study has revealed the predictive impact on drug development in Indonesia to be only 46%. Originality/value – This study adds values to policy-makers as it attempts to predict strategies that would encourage a successful policy when being implemented. Encompassing both pharma industries and government institutions, this study captures a real situation and provides an empirical contribution to the concept of the integrated research of drug development in developing countries. Keywords Drug development, Predictive policy model, Structural equation modeling Paper type Research paper 1. Introduction Growth in drug development is expected in Indonesia, driven by a presidential instruction to government institutions in 2016 to promote local drug development. This expectation is promising since the pharma market is forecast to grow from approximately US$ 7bn in 2018 to US$ 20bn in 2028, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11% (Fitch Solutions, Policymaking strategy for drug development 137 Disclaimers The views expressed in this work are our own solely based on results of the work and not an official position of the institution or funder. Source of support The work was supported by Badan POM to RCS scholarship. There was no additional external funding received for this study. The funder has no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or the preparation of the manuscript. The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available on Emerald Insight at: https://www.emerald.com/insight/2059-4631.htm Received 30 June 2019 Revised 7 February 2020 Accepted 7 February 2020 International Journal of Health Governance Vol. 25 No. 2, 2020 pp. 137-149 © Emerald Publishing Limited 2059-4631 DOI 10.1108/IJHG-12-2019-0083