Urban retrofitting: Identifying disruptive and sustaining technologies using performative and foresight techniques Tim Dixon a, ⁎, Malcolm Eames b,1 , Judith Britnell c,2 , Georgia Butina Watson d,3 , Miriam Hunt b,4 a School of Construction Management and Engineering, University of Reading, Engineering Building, Whiteknights, PO Box 205, Reading, Berks RG6 6AY, UK b Low Carbon Research Institute, Welsh School of Architecture, Cardiff University, Bute Building, King Edward VII Avenue, Cardiff CF10 3NB, UK c Dept of Real Estate and Construction, Faculty of Technology, Design and Environment, Oxford Brookes University, Gipsy Lane, Headington, Oxford OX3 0BP, UK d Department of Planning, Faculty of Technology, Design and Environment, Oxford Brookes University, Gipsy Lane, Headington, Oxford OX3 0BP, UK article info abstract Article history: Received 8 October 2012 Received in revised form 1 May 2013 Accepted 28 August 2013 Available online 23 September 2013 Cities, which are now inhabited by a majority of the world's population, are not only an important source of global environmental and resource depletion problems, but can also act as important centres of technological innovation and social learning in the continuing quest for a low carbon future. Planning and managing large-scale transitions in cities to deal with these pressures require an understanding of urban retrofitting at city scale. In this context performative techniques (such as backcasting and roadmapping) can provide valuable tools for helping cities develop a strategic view of the future. However, it is also important to identify ‘disruptive’ and ‘sustaining’ technologies which may contribute to city-based sustainability transitions. This paper presents research findings from the EPSRC Retrofit 2050 project, and explores the relationship between technology roadmaps and transition theory literature, highlighting the research gaps at urban/city level. The paper develops a research methodology to describe the development of three guiding visions for city-regional retrofit futures, and identifies key sustaining and disruptive technologies at city scale within these visions using foresight (horizon scanning) techniques. The implications of the research for city-based transition studies and related methodologies are discussed. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Low carbon Energy Water Waste Cities Transition theory Roadmaps Retrofit 1.0. Introduction Today the majority of the world's population (more than 50% or 3.5 bn) live in cities but between now and 2050, the global urban population is expected to increase by 84% to 6.3 bn [1]. This rapid urban growth carries costs and benefits for cities. On the one hand, the expansion of cities and the associated quest for economic growth have huge implications for the global environment and resource depletion, and for climate change: cities are, for example, responsible for about 75% of global energy consumption and 80% of greenhouse gas emissions [2]. Yet cities can also offer huge potential advantages for scaling up deployment of relevant technology, services and infrastructure to offset environmental impact and combat climate change and also to act as centres or hubs of innovative social practice and learning [3,4]. Cities, therefore, come to be seen not only as a major ‘ cause’ of environmental impacts and climate change, and as ‘victims’ as they struggle to come to terms with mounting environmental and socio-economic pressures, but also as central to the solution of these problems [5]. In response, and through a developing ‘ sustainable urbanism’ agenda, many countries have focused on developing new ‘eco-city’ projects, based on new city development, particularly in China and the Middle East but also in Europe and USA [6]. However, in the latter countries there has also been an increasing focus on dealing with an ageing built environment and infrastructure. This is not surprising, given that for example in the UK some 70% of the total 2010 Technological Forecasting & Social Change 89 (2014) 131–144 ⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: +44 118 378 7181; fax: +44 118 931 3327. E-mail addresses: t.j.dixon@reading.ac.uk (T. Dixon), eamesm@cardiff.ac.uk (M. Eames), jbritnell@brookes.ac.uk (J. Britnell), gbutina@brookes.ac.uk (G.B. Watson), huntm3@cardiff.ac.uk (M. Hunt). 1 Tel.: +44 29 20870798. 2 Tel.: +44 1865 483162. 3 Tel.: +44 1865 483 438. 4 Tel.: +44 29 20870289. 0040-1625/$ – see front matter © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.027 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Technological Forecasting & Social Change